Algerian Dinar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Firstly, we'll clean the data provided to confirm if it consists of regular intervals and if there are any gaps in the data. We'll then assess each of the elements specified.

Understanding the overall trend of exchange rates

The exchange rates appear to follow a relatively stable trend over the given time frame. Detailed examination reveals only minute fluctuations, which are typical in active markets. The rate primarily revolves around 0.01014 and 0.01018, indicating a relative stability in the shorter term. However, the dataset provides insufficient data to establish a long-term trend or verify the consistency of this stability.

Recurring patterns and seasonality

Within the bounds of the provided data, no clear recurring patterns or seasonality can be observed. Any daily pattern seems to be minor and swallowed by the overall stability of the rate. To effectively observe seasonality, it would require hourly data over a more extended period. According to the provided data, the DZD exchange rate remains relatively unmoved even at different periods of the day.

Outliers in the dataset

Given the scale of fluctuations in the exchange rates, we could not identify any significant outliers in the provided data. The rates, from the highest at 0.01022 to the lowest at 0.01013, follow a predictably quiet pattern with no unexpected peaks or dips. This suggests a steady condition with little volatility during the dataset's time span.

It's crucial to remember that these findings are limited to the specific time span of the dataset, and ongoing monitoring would be required to keep track of imminent changes.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The provided dataset indicates a very stable trend in the exchange rate of DZD over the given time frame. The value of DZD primarily fluctuates between 0.01016 and 0.01022, with minute oscillations throughout the period shown. This suggests an overall stable trend with very slight variances.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the proximity of the maximum and minimum values, it's difficult to precisely pinpoint any cyclic variations at a granular time level. However, a subtle pattern can be observed where the exchange rate fluctuates mildly within the tight range. Further analysis with a larger dataset and longer timeframe would provide better insights into any potential cyclical nature of the exchange rate.

Outliers in the Dataset

With the values mostly remaining within the narrow range throughout the period shown, no significant outliers can be identified based on the current dataset. Every rate logged falls within close proximity of the others, indicating a consistent exchange rate without any dramatic peaks or dips.

In conclusion, the exchange rate has shown a considerable level of stability during the period shown. A marginally undulating pattern is exhibited within the small range, but no conspicuous seasonal patterns or outliers are identifiable from the current dataset. This analysis focusses solely on the dataset provided and does not consider any specific external environment factors, such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the initial evaluation of the dataset, the exchange rate appears to be relatively steady. It starts from 0.01017 and ends at 0.01016 suggesting that the DZD exchange rate remains essentially stable during the observed period. There seem to be minor fluctuations, moving from a minimum of 0.01015 to a maximum of 0.0102, indicating a fluctuation range of 0.00005. Hence, the overall change over the time period can be considered negligible as it tends to revert back to a similar range from where it started.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

Regarding the notion of seasonality or recurring patterns, this would typically require a more detailed examination of the data, potentially over a longer timeframe or with regards to specific timestamps (for example, examining the open and close of the market day). However, from the dataset provided, it may be challenging to accurately identify recurring patterns due to the relatively stable nature of the DZD exchange rates. Any minute variations that do occur do not seem to follow a definitive pattern that can be deemed as seasonal.

3. Identification of Outliers

In terms of outliers, the dataset appears to be mostly consistent with minimal variations. Given the small range of values (0.01015 to 0.0102), any significant deviations from these values could be considered as potential outliers. However, upon review of the dataset provided, no such instances appear to be present. The DZD exchange rate remains within the expected range throughout the observed period, indicating an absence of notable outliers within this dataset.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the DZD Exchange Rate

From the data analysis, the exchange rate of DZD shows a slight fluctuation within a small range. The maximum recorded DZD exchange rate is 0.01021, while the minimum rate is 0.01015. The median rate is somewhere around 0.01018. The data doesn't indicate a clear increasing or decreasing pattern over time, suggesting a relatively stable exchange rate during the observed period.

Seasonality

The dataset does not exhibit clear seasonality or recurring patterns within the hourly data. The observations show minor variations without a consistent repeatable pattern. However, we might need more extensive data, covering multiple days or months, to delineate any potential daily or monthly patterns.

Outliers and Noteworthy Observations

While the change in the DZD exchange rate is relatively minimal, there are a few instances where there are consecutive observations of the same values, which results in periods of stability in the exchange rate. The deviation from these stable periods could be considered outliers. However, these fluctuations are insignificant and lie within the general behavior of the data.

Consideration of External Factors

As instructed, this analysis did not account for any specific external events like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. This analysis purely focused on the number trends and patterns that are observable within the dataset. It is worth noting that incorporating such external factors may provide a more holistic understanding of the exchange rate behavior.

Future Forecast

The analysis did not include a forecast of future exchange rates following the instructions. That said, with existing data, predictive models could be implemented to provide an estimated trend of the DZD exchange rate. However, it's important to remember that exchange rates can be significantly impacted by external events, and any prediction will inherently contain uncertainty.

Conclusion

The DZD exchange rate demonstrates a stable behavior with minor fluctuations and no clear increasing or decreasing pattern. No significant outliers or seasonal effects are discerned. Future datasets covering a longer time frame or incorporating external factors may provide a more detailed understanding of the influences and behavior of the DZD exchange rates.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The data provided represents the exchange rates from 22nd March 2024 to 19th April 2024. The exchange rate demonstrated a trend with minor fluctuations and a general increase. The lowest point of the rate (0.01002) was recorded on 4th April 2024, and the highest point (0.01026) was noted on 16th April 2024. Spatial fluctuations suggest that the rates were not consistently stable, but exhibited slight volatility.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The dataset does not span a sufficient duration to confidently identify traditional forms of seasonality, such as quarterly, monthly, or weekly patterns. However, within the dataset's limited timescale, no recurring pattern was noted. The minor fluctuations seem to occur sporadically, rather than periodically or in a cyclical manner.

3. Outliers and Significant Variations

The most significant variation in exchange rates occurred between 10th April 2024 and 12th April 2024. The rate increased from 0.01007 to 0.01021, which is a relatively substantial increase given the minor fluctuations throughout the rest of the dataset. This could suggest an outlier or a substantial event affecting the exchange rates, but additional data or context would be needed to confirm this.

It is also noteworthy to mention that the general increase in the exchange rate after 8th April 2024 could signify a shift in trends. However, since this is towards the end of the dataset, it is unclear whether this rising trend sustains longer or it was a temporary rise.

In conclusion, although the dataset does not provide detailed long-term insights into the performance of the currency exchange rates due to the relatively short duration of data, it provides valuable insights into the short-term behaviour, fluctuations and trends of the exchange.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The data provided follows a time-series format with timestamp and DZD exchange rate column. Please note, this analysis is purely based on the data without any regard to the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. The results are as follows,

Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the DZD exchange rate from the data provided indicates slight fluctuations with marginal increases and decreases. Overall, the trend seems to be relatively stable with no significant changes in the values. The exchange rate values range from around 0.01019 to 0.01026. This suggests that during the period of time encapsulated in the dataset, there hasn't been any drastic change in exchange rate.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the high frequency and the limited period of data provided, it's quite challenging to identify any clear seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rate. Detecting seasonality would typically require a dataset spanning multiple years, and looking for recurring patterns within similar periods across those years. For the data at hand, no clear seasonal trends can be discerned. However, slight oscillations in the exchange rate can be seen.

Outliers Identification

An outlier is a point or set of points that are different from other points. Often they can be very high or very low. It's often a good idea to detect and remove the outliers because outliers are deceptive and can lead to misleading representations. From the provided dataset, as the values oscillate marginally around the median, there seem to be no clear instances of outliers in this dataset.

Please note again that this analysis does not generate a forecast for future exchange rates. It only provides an overview of the dataset by analyzing current and historical data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

Upon analyzing the data provided, it appears that the exchange rates have been relatively stable. The rates started at 0.01022 at the beginning of the data series and dropped slightly to 0.01019 midway through the dataset, before rising back to levels similar to the starting point, around 0.01023. Towards the end of the period, the rate drops back to 0.01021. Therefore, the overall trend in exchange rates seems to exhibit slight fluctuations, but remains relatively stable across the span of observations.

Identifying Seasonality and Regular Patterns

Given the limitations by the timestamp intervals, mostly every 5 minutes, it is difficult to establish a solid seasonal pattern. The data does not cover an extended period that would usually be required for confident identification of seasonality such as yearly, monthly, or weekly cycles. However, the data indicates minor fluctuations that occur mostly in a constant range. These oscillations hint at a pattern where the exchange rates are continually correcting back towards a mean value indicating some level of mean-reversion inherent in the series.

Outliers and Unusual Data

Regarding outliers in the data, the value of 0.01019 observed midway could be potentially seen as an exception considering the relatively stable values maintained within 0.01022 and 0.01023. However, in light of the overall volatility of the series, this dip is within conceivable variation. As such, it could be interpreted that there are no significant outliers within the data provided.