Kuwaiti Dinar Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The exchange rates in the dataset fluctuated between approximately 4.43603 and 4.45881. Over the timeframe of one day seen in the data, it witnesses slight rises and falls. However, the overall picture is that despite minor fluctuations, the trend can be considered relatively stable, without any significant upward or downward drift. The commencement and cessation points indicate a general decrease in exchange rates, with the former registering at 4.44421 and latter around 4.43479.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Based on the provided data, it's challenging to identify a definitive seasonal trend or recurring pattern. The pattern seems somewhat chaotic, typical for exchange rates which tend to be influenced by many internal and external factors. There were periods of increase, decrease, and plateau within the course of a day, but none of these patterns seem to recur repetitively or cyclically in a manner that signifies seasonality.

3. Outliers in the Dataset

Examining outliers in this dataset is tricky without strictly defined 'normal' parameters. The fluctuations do fall within a relatively tight range as mentioned earlier, from around 4.43603 to 4.45881. Therefore, it's not glaringly apparent that there are any significant outliers where the exchange rate differs massively from the observed norm. However, the maximum value 4.45881 might be considered a minor outlier as it is the peak value with a slight departure from the rest of the dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

Looking at the data provided, the overall trend of the KWD exchange rates over time appears to be mostly stable with a slight increase. The data begins at the rate of 4.43569 at the time stamp of 2024-04-24 00:00:02 and ends at a slightly higher rate of 4.44454 at the time stamp of 2024-04-24 23:55:02. Although there are fluctuations up and down, the general trend suggests a slow and slight increase in exchange rates over this time period.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

An in-depth look at the KWD exchange rates data, there is no clear seasonality or recurring patterns within a single day. Although slight fluctuations can be observed, these do not appear to be tied to a specific recurrent time frame within the day.

Outliers

In the dataset provided, the exchange rates seem to have a few noticeable outliers. For instance, the rate spikes to a high of 4.45732 at the time stamp 2024-04-24 10:45:03, and then falls to a low of 4.44646 not long afterward at 20:25:05. These outliers suggest larger than usual changes in the exchange rate at these specific times, which deviate significantly from the general stable trend observed over the time frame.

However, it's essential to be mindful that these observations are being made purely within a day and it is common to have such intra-day fluctuations in foreign currency markets. Therefore, isolated daily volatility should not be interpreted as an overall trend or pattern without taking into consideration a significantly larger dataset.

In conclusion, while the KWD exchange rate appeared to remain mostly stable with minor positive trend within the given time period, a couple of outliers were identified. No evident seasonal or recurring patterns were identified in this time frame of a single day.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend

From the data provided, there tends to be a gradual increase in the KWD exchange rate. However, the rise is not consistent and smooth; instead, it oscillates due to frequent minor decreases amidst the general upward trend. Thus, it's safe to assert that the overall trend for this dataset is a slight, unstable increment.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

The data doesn't discernibly showcase any recurring pattern on a daily basis. However, upon analyzing the data, some level of mean reversion is evident within the day. That means after a run-up or run-down in exchange rates, they tend to revert back towards the mean. Nonetheless, without data over a larger time frame (for instance, annual data), it's challenging to pinpoint seasonality aspects accurately.

Outliers

This dataset presents relatively minor fluctuations overall, without significant spikes or drops, which indicates low volatility in this period. Therefore, there don't appear to be any major outliers within the data provided – that is, no instances where the exchange rate differs dramatically from the overall trend.

In conclusion, while there is a gradual increase in the KWD exchange rate over the duration of this dataset, the rise is quite erratic with several minor decreases observed. On a daily basis, there doesn't seem to be a discernible recurrent pattern, but some level of mean reversion within the day is present. Finally, no significant outliers were observed within this dataset.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rate for the given time series data shows a slight increase. The initial value was 4.45177 and towards the end, the value settled at 4.44336. Although the figure showed fluctuation during the period, an overall slight increase in the exchange rate can be observed.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Concerning the seasonality or recurring patterns, it appears that the data does not follow a distinct seasonal pattern. The variations in the exchange rates are more random than cyclic, suggesting that the rates are more likely influenced by a multitude of factors, which cannot be determined solely based on the data provided.

3. Outliers and unexpected exchange rates variations

Regarding the outliers, it is quite challenging to identify them with precision without a visual representation or statistical analysis. However, some instances where the value significantly differed from its neighboring data points might indicate potential outliers. For example, the sharp increase from 4.45208 to 4.45565 that occurred within a 5-minutes interval on 2024-04-22.

In summary, the exchange rates displayed a slight upward trend over the mentioned period. Although it was difficult to recognize any clear seasonality or cyclical patterns in the exchange rates, some points made noticeable leaps, possibly due to various external factors not taken into account in this analysis.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the Kawasaki exchange rates over the period covered in the dataset shows a gradual increase over time. The exchange rate starts at 4.40942 and finishes at 4.45732, which indicates a slow and consistent upwards trend. This suggests a progressive appreciation of the value against the quoted currency over the time series.

Seasonality or Recurring Pattern Analysis

Regarding seasonality, upon visual inspection of the data, there does not appear to be a strong seasonal or recurring pattern within the given period. The rates do fluctuate up and down, however, these fluctuations do not appear to follow a specific or predictable pattern. Analysing this data with more advanced methods, such as time series decomposition, might reveal more subtle seasonal patterns.

Outliers Analysis

Outliers in the dataset are instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend, are indeed visible. For instance, the reference values of 4.43857 at "2024-04-10 08:00:03", and 4.49321 at "2024-04-12 02:00:02" represent exceptionally high surges in the exchange rate compared to the neighbouring data points. This could be due to various reasons like an abrupt high demand for the currency or a sudden change in monetary policy among others. A deeper investigation would be needed to definitively point out the cause of these outliers.

However, these outliers seem to be temporary and the exchange rate quickly returns to its average level after such instances, suggesting these may just be short-term fluctuations rather than trend-changing events.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis Overview

This dataset contains data about the exchange rates (KWD) observed at different times. The data recorded is in a time series format demonstrating the fluctuations of the KWD exchange rate over multiple timestamps.

The data collected ranges from 2024-04-15 01:00:02 to 2024-04-19 13:00:02.

Understanding the Trend

After mapping and plotting the dataset, it is inexplicit that the exchange rates slightly vary over the mentioned timeline. From the commencement (4.46464) till the culmination of the dataset period (4.45591), a minor decline in exchange rates has been noticed.

This interpretation is based on the given dataset only and doesn't account for any future projections or external influences.

Recurring Patterns and Seasonality Insight

Identifying seasonality in financial data, especially exchange rates, requires a much larger dataset usually spanning over a year. This facilitates in making deductions about seasonal trends such as quarterly, monthly, or daily patterns. Due to the restricted dataset of just over four days, identifying seasonality is challenging and may not provide precise insights.

However, a somewhat amalgamated pattern can be noted wherein the exchange rate seems to score a peak during the first half of the day, followed by a decline in the latter half. This trend repeats daily throughout the dataset period, but this pattern isn't entirely consistent and needs a larger dataset confirmation for accurate seasonality identification.

Outliers Observations

During the analysis of the given dataset, no substantial outliers were identified that would perceptibly depart from the overall observed trend. The changes in the exchange rate remained relatively stable and followed a consistent pattern of daily fluctuation over the consecutive period.

Note: As mentioned prior, the pattern identified is primarily based on the given concise dataset and might be an exception or may vary for a diverse timeline of data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

I assumed that the date and time positions of the data provided correlate to the KWD exchange rate data points that logically follow them. Date and time are separated by commas.

Overall Trend

At first glance, the exchange rate has varied somewhat over the course of the timestamps provided. It began at 4.46822 at the start of 19th April, 2024 and, after numerous ups and downs through the day, ended lower at 4.45951. Although there are fluctuations, an overall descending pattern can be observed through the timestamps. However, it is important to note that this trend might be different if assessed over longer or different periods.

Seasonality / Recurring Patterns

Observing the provided dataset, no obvious seasonality or recurring patterns can be pinpointed. The data points fluctuate and does not seem to return to a specific value or range consistently through the visible timestamps. Without deeper statistical analysis or more granular data, it’s challenging to identify precise recurring patterns. However, typically, we may expect such patterns to follow known events in the financial day such as market openings, closings or fixed report release times.

Outliers

Outliers in this context would be any exchange rates that deviate significantly from the overall trend or the rates around similar times. Without a robust statistical test run on this data, precise outliers cannot be definitively identified. However, looking at the values, there are several points where the rate deviates noticeably from its preceding and following rates. For instance, there's a distinct peak at the rate of 4.47083 and 4.47079 around the timestamps of 2024-04-19 01:05:02 and 2024-04-19 01:10:02 respectively. There's another drop to 4.4525 at 2024-04-19 09:35:02. Also, a distinct low occurs at 4.45175 at the timestamp 2024-04-19 10:10:02. The rates at these timestamps could potentially be considered outliers. Further statistical analysis is necessary for a full identification.