Cuban Peso Forecast

Not for Invesment, Informational Purposes Only

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    The data provided shows that the exchange rate started at 0.05122 and concluded at 0.05121. The maximum exchange rate throughout the dataset is 0.05131, and the minimum is 0.05111. This suggests a somewhat stable exchange rate within a very tight range over the given time period. However, exchange rates exhibit minor fluctuations, indicating various adjustments to cope with conditions in the financial market. Overall, there doesn't seem to be a strong upward or downward trend within the provided timeframe.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    From the data provided, it's challenging to identify seasonality or recurring patterns. Exchange rates may vary due to a number of market-related factors and potentially exhibit daily or intra-day seasonality, but the dataset we have does not provide sufficient insights to determine these patterns. Since the given data is for one day, one cannot find weekly or monthly seasonality. This analysis would require data for a longer period of time to be more accurate.

    3. Noting any outliers

    By scanning through the dataset, no significant outliers are directly noticeable – most of the values are within a very tight range, with subtle fluctuations from one value to another. However, any definitive conclusion about the existence of outliers would require more sophisticated statistical analysis. This could involve measures such as standard deviation or interquartile ranges to measure how far the values deviated from the mean.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

    Upon analysis of your time series data, it appears that the exchange rates (CUP) show minute changes and, overall, demonstrate a very weak upward trend across the given time window. Starting at around 0.05112 at the beginning time stamp and towards the end of the data series, it increments in very modest fractions to approximately 0.05122. Thus, we can say the rate seems to go through micro-fluctuations, but generally stabilizes towards a state of small growth.

    2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns

    The dataset does not show any apparent seasonality. Given that the data spans a single day, the typical seasonality (yearly, quarterly, monthly, or weekly) does not come into play. Additionally, no obvious hourly patterns can be discerned. The rates do not consistently rise, fall, or remain stable at specific hours or intervals throughout the day. Micro changes occur, but no fixed pattern appears to recur.

    3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

    What is noteworthy about this data set is the stability of the rates. There are no significant spikes, dips, or outliers in the exchange rates. The fluctuations throughout the day are slight, if not negligible. This could indicate that the currency is relatively stable and there are no volatile market conditions impacting its value during this particular period captured in the data.

    Remember that these insights are purely based on the given dataset and the identified patterns might change with a bigger dataset spanning over a longer period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Understanding the overall trend

    From the initial inspection of the data, the overall exchange rate of CUP observed on February 26, 2024, shows small fluctuations, with changes largely varying between 0.05095 and 0.05105. The range is quite narrow, with only 0.0001 difference between the maximum and minimum rates. At the start of the day, the rate seemed to be 0.05098, and it kept fluctuating within the given range till the end of day. However, on a closer look, one can notice a slight upward trend that reaches its peak at around 03:40:03 with a rate of 0.05105, followed by a gradual decreasing trend until 14:35:04 where the rate dropped down to its lowest point of 0.05095. After that, the rate again started to increase, showing a slight upwards trend until 22:40:02. Therefore, while the exchange rate does show minor changes throughout the day, no prominent increase or decrease trend can be observed in general as the values remain rather stable.

    2. Identification of seasonality or recurring patterns

    Time series data often includes some form of seasonality - a recurring pattern that happens at regular intervals. However, in the provided dataset, no strong seasonality or recurring pattern seems to be observed. The rates fluctuate within a very narrow range (< 0.0001) and by flips between two main points of 0.05095 and 0.05105 the entire day. Despite this minor oscillation, no evident pattern can be determined immediately from the data, and it seems to be somewhat random within this range.

    3. Outliers and significant instances

    Considering the narrow range within which the exchange rates are altering, any significant deviation from this range could be considered as an outlier. However, throughout the day, the rates only change between 0.05095 and 0.05105, which is a very close range. Hence, no noticeable outliers are present in the data. Still, as mentioned before, the lowest rate 0.05095, which highlighted at 14:35:04, and the highest rate 0.05105, beamed at 03:40:03, they can be considered important instances although not exactly outliers in this scenario. So, it will be interesting to understand what has caused these twists during those times.

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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    Understanding the Overall Trend

    Overall, the provided time series data on the CUP exchange rate from January 26, 2024, to February 23, 2024, indicates a slight decrease trend. The rate begins at 0.05084 and ends at 0.05095. It should be noted that while this overall trajectory suggests that the exchange rate has remained relatively stable over the near month-long period, it has experienced periods of fluctuation throughout.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Examining the given data, it is difficult to conclusively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in changes of exchange rates. The changes in the exchange rates seem to occur somewhat randomly throughout the period. There are periods where the rate increases slightly, only to decrease soon after and vice versa. To develop a more definitive understanding of the seasonal trends affecting the CUP exchange rate, an examination of a larger dataset spanning multiple years might be required.

    Outliers Observation

    Regarding outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly, the given data does not show any drastic spikes or drops. The CUP exchange rate appears to have remained within the 0.0504 to 0.0512 range throughout the observed period. The most significant decrease was observed on February 21, 2024, when the exchange rate went down to 0.05077 from its previous value at 0.0509. Conversely, the most significant increase was observed on February 19, 2024, when the exchange rate rose to 0.05098 from 0.05078. However, these are relatively mild changes and fail to qualify as significant outliers based on the data provided.

    Without considering external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, the analysis of this dataset only goes so far. It may still be beneficial to consider these factors in the future to gain a deeper and richer understanding of the specific influences on the CUP exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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    1. Overall Trend Analysis

    Based on the provided data, there seems to be a slight upward trend in the exchange rates over the examined period. The rates started at approximately 0.05084 and ended at 0.05095. This implies a gradual increase, but it should be noted that the changes are minimal and do not signify a substantial shift in exchange rates.

    2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    The analyzed data does not clearly exhibit any daily or weekly seasonal trends. The exchange rates fluctuate slightly around the mean value but without a noticeable pattern. A more definite seasonality may emerge if we had data over a longer period or more granular data (like minutely or hourly).

    3. Outliers Assessment

    In the context of the overall stability in the exchange rates, there don't appear to be significant outliers within the presented dataset. Most of the changes in the rates are marginal and would be expected considering normal fluctuations in the market. However, an anomalous spike or drop may be considered significant if it occurs outside the normal fluctuation range.

    4. External Factors

    Though we are instructed not to consider external market factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, these factors traditionally have considerable influence on exchange rates. They can result in sudden and significant shifts in rates, presenting as outliers or disruptions in seasonal trends. It's important to keep in mind for comprehensive analysis.

    5. Future Forecast

    As specified, no future forecast has been generated for this analysis.

    Note: This analysis is purely from the given data. Time series data like this is usually influenced by numerous factors, which can range from macroeconomic indicators to global events. For a more comprehensive understanding and accurate forecasting, more extensive data and deeper insight into these influential factors are highly recommended.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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  • Trend

    Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

    On analyzing the given dataset, it appears that the exchange rate of CUP generally increases slightly over the time period shown. The lowest rate is 0.05081 appearing on 2024-02-23 at 06:55:02 and the highest rate is 0.05100 on 2024-02-23 at 10:25:03. The general trend is upward, though at a slow rate.

    Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

    Complete seasonality and recurring patterns cannot be fully determined from the given dataset as this requires long term data ideally covering several years. However, within the provided timeframe, there isn't a clear sign of seasonality or any apparent hour by hour pattern. The frequency of change in exchange rate is not consistent and there are periods where it remains static followed by slight fluctuations. Full seasonal or day by day recurring patterns would require a larger sample size or a more extended timeframe.

    Noting any Outliers

    An outlier in time-series data is generally considered a point that deviates significantly from other observations. Examining the given time series data, there doesn't appear to be any significant outliers. The exchange rates are largely consistent, with only minor fluctuations. The rate steadily increases, with no dramatic jumps or drops that would be considered 'outliers.' Nevertheless, to have a more accurate observation of outliers, it'd be effective to consider a much larger time period or have a statistical analysis of the data focused on the detection of values that deviate significantly.

    It's essential to remember that this analysis is based upon the data provided and limited to the timestamps given. For a detailed exploration and understanding of the trend over a long period, comprehensive analysis using larger datasets, possibly considering external factors like market fluctuations and significant financial events, would be beneficial.