Cuban Peso Forecast

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the trend:

The general trend of the exchange rates, from the provided dataset, seems relatively stable, with minor fluctuations over time. The rates range from 0.05152 to 0.0518. This small range of values throughout the dataset indicates a tight control on rate fluctuations, which is characteristic of a fixed exchange rate system.

Identifying seasonality:

Based on the data provided, it is difficult to definitively determine seasonality in this context. To identify a rigorous seasonality, it would be needed a longer duration dataset, ideally encompassing several years. However, the high-frequency nature of the data (collected every few minutes) could suggest some intra-day seasonality. For instance, certain times of day might consistently see higher or lower exchange rates due to market operations. But for definitive conclusions, a more detailed analysis or additional data would be required.

Note on outliers:

In this kind of financial analysis, outliers are typically instances where the exchange rate shows a distinct and abrupt change compared to the prevailing trend. In this dataset, such outliers would manifest as rates significantly higher or lower than an estimated average. Given the relatively narrow range, few potential outliers have been identified. However, there are a few points, such as 0.0518, 0.05157, that show small outlier characteristics when compared to the general trend. Any significant deviation from the general trends could potentially be constituted as an outlier, but these fluctuations appear to be minor in the context of this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The dataset contains a time series data of exchange rates from 2024-04-24 00:00:02 to 2024-04-24 23:55:02. On initial observation, it can be seen that the exchange rate is moderately fluctuating, marking a trend of instability. The exchange rate begins at 0.05157 and ends at 0.05167. This indicates a slight increase over the time period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon looking at the data, it's not immediately obvious whether there is a clear seasonality or periodic variation. The data appears to fluctuate randomly. However, a minor sense of repetition can be observed from time to time, with rates rising and falling in a somewhat consistent manner, suggesting a possible cyclical pattern throughout the day. Further methodological statistical analysis, such as Dickey-Fuller Test or periodogram analysis, would be needed to confirm the presence of seasonality.

3. Outliers

Identifying outliers in this dataset is challenging without visualization tools, as small fluctuations might appear significant due to the scale of the values. However, at a glance, no exchange rate is observed to differ significantly from the others, indicating a lack of clear outliers. More accurate detection of outliers would require statistical testing or boxplot visualization.

Note: The careful analysis of time-series data often involves some level of mathematical sophistication and dedicated analytical tools. These initial observations could be further enriched and verified with more advanced methodologies and tools.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data Analysis

Upon reviewing the dataset and analyzing the trend of changes, here are the key findings:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

There is a slight fluctuation in the exchange rate over time, with minimal changes recorded within the timestamp provided. However, it is imperceptible to say if the rates are increasing or decreasing as the variances are quite small. We can state that the rates remain generally stable over the period shown in the dataset.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Due to the limitation of the dataset provided, which only spans a relatively short period, it is challenging to determine if there are seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates. To arrive at a comprehensive understanding of the seasonality, we would need data over multiple periods (years). However, given the available data, there are no explicitly observable patterns.

Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

Given the fluctuations in the data, any perceived 'significant changes' are within range of the slight fluctuations, and the exchange rate remains fairly stable. Therefore, based on the given data, we are unable to note any outliers or significant deviations.

Note: This analysis is based purely on the provided dataset and without any consideration for external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports, as per the provided instructions. For a more comprehensive analysis, a larger dataset spanning multiple periods and inclusion of external factors might be beneficial.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

Upon analyzing the given dataset, it can be observed that the exchange rates have shown a slight fluctuation. However, the overall trend appears to be relatively stable. The values varied minimally, majorly lying between 0.05167 and 0.05188. This suggests that there isn't a strong increasing or decreasing trend over the period shown in the data.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

This dataset does not seem to display any recurring patterns or apparent seasonality over the given timespan. The fluctuations in exchange rates are minor and do not show an apparent pattern. Thus, it is difficult to identify any significant seasonality in the changes of exchange rates based solely on this dataset.

3. Outliers and Unexpected Values

The data exchange rates recorded in this dataset do not show any significant outliers or unexpected values. The range of exchange rates values is quite small and there isn't a case where the rate deviates substantially from the rest of the observations. Therefore, the data appears to be pretty consistent, and no significant anomalies or outliers can be pinpointed.

Note: This analysis is purely based on the dataset provided and does not account for specific events or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Predictive forecasting was not performed as per the request.

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

General Trend Analysis

After reviewing the given dataset, it appears that the exchange rates depicted show a relatively stable trend throughout the timeframe. There isn't a clear standard upward or downward progression across the entire dataset. However, there are several minor fluctuations in the exchange rates. For instance, the rate starts at 0.05118, rises slightly to peak at around 0.05133, and then falls back to 0.05104. After that, it experiences several peaks and troughs till reaching 0.05201. Then it sees a dip, reaching a lowest point of 0.05088 but rises back again to 0.05219. It’s followed by few fluctuations till it stabilizes at 0.05186. Due to equal and opposite fluctuations, rates appear to show significant consistency and stability.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

While it's challenging to definitively identify any clear patterns or seasonalities in the dataset due to no distinctive cyclical change over the period under review, there appear to be instances of short-term cyclic patterns within more limited timeframes. These cycles of exchange rate increases and decreases seem to repeat at many intervals, suggesting a degree of recurrence at those periods. However, these observations are inconclusive and may not stand up to statistical tests for seasonality due to rather contradictory fluctuations.

Outliers and Significant Changes

There aren't many apparent outliers in the exchange rate values. Most values tend to range between 0.05088 and 0.05219, which indicates a relatively stable exchange rate within this range. However, There is a noticeable jump in the rates data on '2024-04-10'. The rate significantly jumps from 0.05116 to 0.0515, followed by a continued increase, reaching 0.05166. Then it fluctuates around this raised value for a period before again going back to initial stable range. This sudden, somewhat significant hike can be considered unusual based on the data trend.

To conclude, this confounding data indicates the need for more intricate volatility models to understand the intricate dynamics of the rates. For example, Garch models are particularly useful for financial time series with complex patterns.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

There are few pieces of information to consider from the dataset:

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The general pattern of the exchange rates over the given period shows volatility. The rates generally fluctuate between 0.05185 and 0.05219. However, we do not see a consistent rise or fall during this timeframe. Therefore, it can be said that the exchange rates predominantly remained stable with slight fluctuations.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Close observation of the data doesn't give a clear indication of seasonality or recurring pattern within the exchange rate changes over the timeframe covered. The reasons are various factors influencing rates such as economic indicators, political events, and market conditions. Therefore, suggesting a pattern from this analytics is not tangible without considering those external factors.

Noting Outliers

The data seems to be consistent without stark outliers. The exchange rates fluctuate only within a small range. If we consider any rate that falls beyond the 0.05185-0.05219 range as an outlier, there are none within this dataset. Therefore, no outliers have been identified from this time-series data of exchange rates.

Please note, while this analysis provides insights into the raw exchange rate data, it doesn't account for external factors that might affect these rates such as market events, political developments, etc. Comprehensive financial analyses would also consider these factors.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the exchange rates seems to remain quite stable. Throughout the dataset, the exchange rate only fluctuates minimally between 0.0518 and 0.05203. Although the dataset varied minutely within a small range, it does not show a clear trend of generally increasing or decreasing during the period shown. It rather described a situation of more frequent and minimal fluctuation.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

With regards to seasonality and recurring patterns in the exchange rates, it is challenging to thoroughly confirm them based only on the data provided. The data points seem to be mostly randomized and without a clear pattern visible on a specific time of day. To confirm the existence of seasonality or recurring patterns, further dataset spanning over a longer period, perhaps involving different days, weeks, or months would be required.

3. Identifying Outliers

Outliers are not noticeable in the exchange rates as provided in the dataset. The exchange rate consistently hovers around the 0.0518 - 0.05203 mark. Should there be any significant departures from this range, they would be considered outliers. However, such instances are absent from the current data. The fluctuation in the exchange rates seems to be relatively small and consistent, with very little variation.