2024-05-13 Zambian Kwacha News

Summary of Last Week

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon analyzing the given dataset, it is observed that over the indicated period, the exchange rates tend to decrease gradually. The initial exchange rate is 0.05493 on 2024-04-12 and the final reading in the dataset is 0.04993 on 2024-05-10, indicating a gradual downward trend.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

While the general trend of the dataset indicates a decrease in exchange rates, there are also several notable patterns of fluctuation within this trend. This shows the underlying volatility of the exchange rate. Significant intra-day variations are observable, possibly indicating that the ZMW exchange rate may be affected by daily market operations. However, the data does not appear to show a clear weekly, monthly, or yearly seasonal pattern based on the available data. Or at least, any potential seasonality is not straightforward or dominant enough to go beyond the general decremental trend. Therefore, additional data or more granular data might be needed to identify seasonality in this case.

3. Outliers and Notable Instances

As the data mainly suggests a general downward trend without a clear seasonal pattern, the outliers in this data could be considered when the ZMW exchange rate shows sudden and significant increases or decreases. There are several instances where the exchange rate counters the overall downward trend and increases. Some sudden drops in the rate are also observable that seem to go beyond the normal trend pace. These sudden changes can be considered as outliers within the trend.

However, as financial data is subject to a multitude of influential factors – many of which can be volatile and unpredictable – these outliers are not entirely unexpected and may not be 'outliers' in a traditional statistical sense. Therefore, whilst they can be noted, it would be necessary to understand the reasons behind these fluctuations to determine whether they represent a significant anomaly in the data or not.

May 2024 A series of financial events in 2024 led to fluctuations in the exchange rate of Zambia''s currency, the Zambian Kwacha (ZMW). The most conspicuous shift was observed in early May when there was a significant downward slide in the ZMW exchange rate. At the onset of April, the ZMW saw marginal increases in its value, creating a bullish market trend. Starting from a rate of around 0.05493 on April 12, 2024, there was a slow but steady rise to reach a high of 0.05522 just after mid-month. This upward momentum represented an uptick in the economic activity, as various financial sectors seemed to be regaining strength. However, as the month of April ended, the ZMW saw a series of downward spirals where it experienced a notable decrease in its rate, taking it to lows of around 0.05113 nearing the start of May. The month of May seemed to exacerbate this situation with the ZMW plunging to as low as 0.04986 by May 10, 2024. These patterns indicate an evident devaluation of the ZMW, which could be attributed to various factors, including prevailing economic conditions both domestically and internationally. In an ever-globalized world, currencies often take hits or gains based on events around the world, and it seems that in this case, the ZMW took a significant hit. From an investor perspective, there appears to be a considerable level of volatility in the ZMW market during this period. While such circumstances can provide opportunities for savvy investors to exploit shifts in the exchange rates, they can also make certain investments in the country riskier. Therefore, this development sheds light on the need for investors and business entities to carefully monitor the ZMW''s situation to avoid any potential losses. Moreover, this downward trend of the ZMW could also spell negative implications for Zambia''s economy, particularly for importers. A weaker national currency means imported goods become more expensive, which can lead to a rise in inflation and a decrease in consumer purchasing power. In analyzing the future trajectory for the ZMW, it appears that it may continue to be subject to such fluctuations given the prevailing state of the global economy. As such, continued monitoring of the global and local economic situation will be key to understanding this trend further and deciphering any future implications it may have on both the Zambian economy and associated investors. In conclusion, the importance of closely tracking changes in exchange rates can''t be overstated. The ZMW''s journey in April and early May of 2024 is a testament to the sea of possible changes in a relatively short time. As we navigate through 2024, the Zambian Kwacha''s dance with market pressures will be a space to watch, particularly for those vested in Zambia''s economic future.Significant Slide in ZMW Exchange Rate Observed in Early May 2024

Current Middle Market Exchange Rate

For information purposes only.