2024-05-13 Naira News

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Overall Trends

According to the data provided, the overall trend of the Nigerian Naira (NGN) exchange rate from 12th April to 10th May 2024 reveals a gradual decline. The NGN started at 0.0011 on 12th April, then it slightly fluctuated between 0.00115 and 0.0012 until mid-April. After reaching a peak value of 0.00128 on April 19th, it showed a trend of gradual decline for the rest of the period. By the end of the given period on May 10th, the NGN fell to 0.00096.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Upon analysis of the data provided, there is no obvious seasonality observed in the exchange rates. However, the NGN appears to be somewhat stable within certain windows of time, with small fluctuations observed consistently, suggesting that it is responding to normal supply and demand forces in the foreign exchange market during these windows. However, no recurring pattern of a significant increase or decrease in value is noted that would illustrate a seasonal trend.

Outliers and Significant Deviations

While there are no extreme outliers present in the dataset, some deviations from the typical range do occur. For instance, between April 18th and 19th, the NGN surged from 0.00120 to 0.00128. Another significant deviation is observed on April 22nd, when the value dropped to 0.00115 from 0.00128. Additionally, within the last third of the observed period (from late April to early May), the decline in the value of NGN was more accelerated, with more slopes in the downward direction.

24 Period A comprehensive review of the NGN exchange rate from April to May 2024 reveals a marked volatility which is indicative of the economic fluctuations during this period. Commencing on April 12, the exchange rate began at 0.0011, which remained steady until a brief surge to 0.00115 three days later. Towards the end of April 15, the rate continued to gradually climb, eventually reaching 0.0012, where it steadied for the remainder of the month. Entering May, however, saw the rate increasingly exhibit a downward trajectory. By May 7, the recorded exchange rate had decreased to 0.00099, before sinking further to a low of 0.00094 by May 9. This turbulent period for the NGN exchange rate corresponds with various macroeconomic events that threatened to destabilize the market. The impact of geopolitical tensions and global trade disruptions during this month is apparent in these erratic fluctuations. The rise in the NGN exchange rate throughout mid-April can be attributed to a positive burst in the country''s domestic economic activities, which boosted market confidence. However, underlying vulnerabilities soon became apparent as the rise was shortly countered with a steady fall throughout May. These events are indicative of the economic fragility prevailing during the period. Facing uncertainty, both domestic and foreign investors adopted a watch-and-wait approach. This marked hesitance among investors contributed to the incrementally depreciating exchange rate. Exhausted foreign reserves and inflationary pressures further exacerbated the situation, casting doubts on the country''s economic sustainability. Market analysts closely observed these trends, anticipating a possible intervention from the government or Central Bank. Such interventions typically aim to stabilize the market by adjusting monetary policy, which would, in turn, lend strength to the NGN over time. This turbulent journey of the NGN exchange rate underlines the inextricable relationship between macroeconomic factors and market stability. The significant fluctuations witnessed throughout this period served as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global frameworks and have offered an invaluable learning curve for market participants. While this may not paint the most positive picture of economic stability currently, the lessons learnt from this volatile period may well serve to foster the adaptations and resilience needed for a sustainable economic future. It is accurate to project that the upcoming weeks will crucially shape the course for the NGN exchange rate. In the face of these market pressures, investors and market participants are advised to stay updated on recent market trends. The coming period will be pivotal in demonstrating whether market conditions improve, or if further intervention is deemed necessary. While the future remains uncertain at this point, keeping abreast of these trends will ensure market participants are positioned to react swiftly to any emerging situation. NGN Exchange Rate Experiences Turbulence in April-May 2024 Period

Current Middle Market Exchange Rate

For information purposes only.