Surge in NGN Exchange Rates Sparks Optimism for Investors

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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The dataset provided is a time-series data that highlights the changes in NGN exchange rate from March 22nd, 2024 till April 19th, 2024. On a closer examination, insights were drawn considering the overall trend of the rates, seasonality, and outliers. Please note that no external factors like market openings/closure, weekends/holidays, or release of pivotal financial news and reports have been considered as part of this analysis as requested.

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

An observation of the NGN exchange rates shows that the rates have overall increased throughout the period. The rate starts at around 0.00096 on March 22nd, 2024 and increases to reach at 0.00128 by April 19th, 2024. Generally, there are fluctuations throughout the period, but the general trend portrays an increment in the rates.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in the Changes of Exchange Rates

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, a daily pattern is observed where reductions in the exchange rate mostly occur around 12:00 to 14:00. This can be considered as a 'dip' after which there is a relative increase in the rates. However, the extent and frequency of this fluctuation vary throughout the period.

3. Noting Any Outliers in the Exchange Rates

There were several significant changes noticed in the data where the rate differed from the general trend. For instance, there was a significant jump in the exchange rate from 0.0011 to 0.00115 on April 12th, 2024. Additionally, a notable drop can be observed from 0.0012 to 0.00118 between April 17th, 2024 and April 18th, 2024 which contradicts the general increasing trend of the dataset. These can be suggested as outliers within this dataset.

Overall, while making financial decisions based on this dataset, it is pivotal to consider that while the general trend of the exchange rates is increasing, there is notable daily volatility and occasional significant rate changes contradicting the trend.

Please Note

This analysis is performed based solely on the provided dataset. The inclusion of external factors like market operating hours, holidays or financial news updates may influence the actual behaviour of the rates and should be included for a comprehensive forecasting.

### News Article Foreign currency investors have been on a thrilling ride watching the Naira (NGN) exchange rates in recent weeks, pulling favorable reactions and renewed optimism. Between March 22 and April 19, 2024, the fluctuations in the exchange rates exhibited dynamic shifts, but the overall trajectory skewing north has caught investor''s attention. The data displayed a starting rate of 0.00096, dipping to a low of 0.00092, before settling into a gradual uptrend making the bull case for the NGN stronger. On April 15, gains became more significant with the exchange rate punching above 0.00119 for the first time, prompting a clear shift in market sentiment. Within a week, it reached an all-time high of 0.00128. This marked a rise of over 25% from the lowest point within the same period. The dramatic nature of these shifts is rarely seen in exchange rate movements, typically characterized by incrementally small changes. The rally in the Naira''s value is not merely a fence-sitting statistic. It is a vital indicator of the state of the Nigerian economy, as exchange rates reflect a nation''s economic health. An appreciating exchange rate can indicate improved terms of trade, potentially drawing the attention of more foreign investors, an essential component of economic growth. However, the financial landscape holds numerous moving parts, many of them carrying far-reaching implications. This rally has significant implications for not only traders and investors but also for importers and exporters dealing with the Nigerian market. Exporters might currently be feeling the pinch due to the stronger Naira, as their competitive edge might be dulled. Conversely, the situation bodes well for Nigerian importers who are likely to be getting more for their money following the surge. Moving forward, while some might view the present scenario as a sign of economic robustness, others might be cautious about potential impacts of a stronger Naira on inflation and export competitiveness. Furthermore, the question remains on sustainability. Can this upward trajectory in the NGN exchange rate hold steady? Moreover, are these changes reflective of market fundamentals, or are they being driven by speculative trading? As upcoming financial trends unfold, market watchers will undoubtedly be scanning the horizon with a renewed interest. We are in an unprecedented economic era, and it remains essential for investors and businesses alike to stay abreast of the evolving financial terrain. The recent movement of the Naira indicates just one facet of the complex world of finance and a glimpse into the economic possibilities of Nigeria. Surge in NGN Exchange Rates Sparks Optimism for Investors

Current Middle Market Exchange Rate

For information purposes only.