2024-04-22 Gourde News
2024-04-21
Summary of Last Week
- Opening:
- Closing:
- Difference of Opening & Closing:
- Daily High:
- Daily Low:
- Difference of Daily High & Low:
Statistical Measures
- Mean:
- Standard Deviation:
Trend
Data Import and Cleaning
To start with, we first import the data provided into a workable format. Given that the format of the data is irregular, an initial cleaning process is carried out. This includes splitting the single text into a data-frame with timestamp and exchange rate columns properly segmented.
Overall Trend Analysis
Let's begin with the first task: analyzing the overall trend in the exchange rates. To get a sense of the trend, a scatter plot of the exchange rates against the timestamps will provide a visual representation of the movements over time. A line of best fit can be superimposed onto this scatterplot to add clarity to the trend. Preliminary assessment of the graph reveals that the exchange rates have a slight fluctuation throughout the given period, with minor increases and decreases. There does not seem to be a clear increasing or decreasing trend.
Seasonality and Recurring Pattern Analysis
Moving onto the second task of identifying any potential seasonality or recurring patterns in the data, we employ time-series decomposition. This will tell us whether the nature of the fluctuations is random or if there are any systematic patterns that are repeating in the data. We found no apparent daily patterns in the data to suggest seasonality - the exchange rate values seem to occur randomly rather than in any specific time-based pattern. But for a stronger conclusion, we would need more data points, preferably several years of data.
Outlier Detection
Lastly, we search for potential outliers in the exchange rate data. Utilizing a boxplot can be an effective method for detecting outliers in this context. This graphical method illustrates the interquartile range, within which the central 50% of exchange rates fall. Any exchange rates that fall outside this range can be considered outliers. No noticeable outliers have been found. Although there are some spikes and dips, they do not appear to be vastly different from the general distribution, plus the fact that even minor differences can have significant impacts in financial contexts.
Results and Conclusions
It is crucial to note that this analysis does not consider any potential external influencing factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. As such, any potential impacts from these factors have not been factored in. We didn't provide any forecast for future rates, but keep in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future results, especially in the ever-changing and highly influenced world of exchange rates. The presented analysis should be utilized as an exploratory tool, rather than a definitive guide for financial decision-making.
