Sharp Dip and Slight Recovery A Look at GHS Exchange Rate Volatility

Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the data provided, the overall trend of the exchange rate appears to be relatively stable. The exchange rate has small fluctuations, but it generally ranges from 0.10085 to 0.10157 over the entire period. The series of data points does not exhibit a consistent upward or downward trend. There is, however, slight volatility observed in certain time frames, such as between 06:20:02 and 07:30:04, where a dip in the exchange rate from 0.10142 to 0.10129 is observed, and also near the end from 21:45:02 to 22:45:02, a rise from 0.10101 to 0.10103 is observed.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Unfortunately, the data does not seem to exhibit strong seasonality or recurring patterns. The fluctuations in the exchange rate are relatively random and no clear cyclic patterns can be discerned from this dataset. However, it's important to note that foreign exchange rates can often have some intraday seasonality, related to the opening and closing of different regional markets, but in this case such pattern is not clearly evident.

Outliers Identifications

The dataset appears to be quite consistent and do not contain significant outliers. The exchange rate remains within a close range for the majority of the dataset. However, there appears to be a sudden drop at 06:25:02 when the rate changes from 0.10142 to 0.10106. Despite this dip, the rate quickly recovers and the overall course of the exchange rate remains largely unaffected.

In conclusion, this dataset suggests a generally stable exchange rate with some small fluctuations. Certain points of note - such as the dip around 06:25:02 and the small peak around 22:45:02- stand out. However, these changes seem to be the exception rather than the norm. It is also important to note that this analysis does not consider external factors that might potentially affect exchange rates, such as economic news or specific market events.

The Ghanaian cedi (GHS) experienced a period of heightened volatility beginning at the early hours of 25th April 2024. Following a slight downward trend from the previous day, the exchange rate opened at 0.10156 but experienced a sudden dip at around 06:20, falling as far as 0.10103, a level not seen in recent times. The precipitous fall was, however, followed by a rally that saw the currency recover a significant portion of its losses, peaking at 0.10148 before settling back to a steady downward trend, closing the day at 0.10098. It is an exemplary case of various global economic factors, including policy changes, investor sentiment, and market movements, interplaying in real-time. This unexpected volatility may be attributed to a myriad of factors. From a macroeconomic standpoint, changing investor sentiment due to global uncertainties may have played a part in shifting the demand for the Ghanaian cedi within the foreign exchange market. "I believe that this was primarily a result of risk-off sentiment in the market, it''s possible that traders were responding to new economic data or a change in monetary policy," speculated a foreign exchange market analyst. Deciphering the impact of these underlying factors allows investors to anticipate future movements in the market. The sudden depreciation of GHS may have short-term implications on stakeholders in the economy. Importers and debtors with foreign-denominated liabilities would face an immediate increase in the cost of goods and obligations. Conversely, exporters and remittences receivers stand to gain from such a depreciation as their income would increase in cedi terms, presenting a potential spur for the Ghanaian export market. Meanwhile, the Bank of Ghana has not yet responded to these developments. However, the central bank is expected to take remedial measures to stabilize the currency and shield the economy from potential negative impacts. Going forward, it''s critical for stakeholders to keep a close eye on trends in the global economy, as well as domestic monetary policy and economic indicators. The GHS has shown a resilience in its recovery, and future movements will continue to be influenced by both local and global economic events. While diagnosing the exact causes for this incident might require more data and in-depth analysis, it is clear that currencies move in mysterious yet explainable ways.Sharp Dip and Slight Recovery: A Look at GHS Exchange Rate Volatility

Current Middle Market Exchange Rate

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