AZN Exchange Rate Exhibits Unforeseen Volatility

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Follow Azerbaijanian Manat Forecast May 9, 2024
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Summary of Yesterday

  • Opening:
  • Closing:
  • Difference of Opening & Closing:
  • Daily High:
  • Daily Low:
  • Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

  • Mean:
  • Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analyzing the Time-Series Data of Exchange Rates

Before beginning an in-depth analysis, we first load your data into a time-series model to help us understand its behaviour. Then, using various statistical measures and visualization techniques, It appears that the data requires a more sophisticated analysis to give us meaningful insights. Below are the results after analyzing the dataset:

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

When visualizing the data, it appears that the exchange rate for AZN has shown slight fluctuations over the depicted timeframe. There were times when the rate increased or decreased, but overall, it appears to be rather stable. This could be described as a horizontal or stationary trend, assuming no significant change in exchange rate over time.

2. Identifying Recurring Patterns or Seasonality

From this dataset, it's challenging to clearly identify any seasonality or recurring patterns, which would show up as consistent, predictable fluctuations in exchange rates at certain periodic intervals. Such patterns might exist daily, weekly, or at other periods.

However, it's important to note that many economic time series don't display a clear seasonality, especially for raw data that hasn't been adjusted for outside influences or events. Detecting seasonality often requires more data spanning over a longer timeframe, ideally multiple years, to determine potential seasonal patterns caused by regular economic cycles or events.

3. Noting Any Outliers

Upon examining the dataset, there were no significant extreme values or outliers in the exchange rates. Most fluctuations stayed within a consistent range, with no significant peaks or troughs that would suggest major financial events impacting the exchange rate.

It's important to remember that absence of outliers may support the hypothesis that the currency market is effective with smooth adjustments to changes in supply and demand. Also, absence of outliers indicates the dataset is reliable without data entry errors or measurement errors.

Please note that this analysis was solely based on the given dataset and did not include any external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports as requested.

For a more comprehensive and informative analysis, it would be beneficial to have an extended timeframe with more data points, and perhaps some additional information about external factors impacting the exchange rates.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the rate of AZN against the base currency appears to remain fairly consistent and stable over time, without any recurrent seasonal pattern or apparent outliers. To better understand the behaviour, trend, and seasonality of the exchange rate, we would recommend a more detailed analysis using a larger dataset over a longer timeframe.

In an unusual development, the Azerbaijani Manat (AZN) exchange rate experienced unexpected fluctuations across yesterday''s trading day, leaving financial analysts scrambling to understand this erratic behavior. According to the time-series data, the AZN started the day with a high of 0.81077 at 00:05:02, setting an optimistic tone for the day. However, this optimism was halted as the rate slipped to its first significant low of 0.80663 less than 15 minutes later. Throughout the day, there was a continued mix of peaks and troughs, the most significant peak being 0.83646 at 10:25:03; the lowest recorded rate was 0.78001 at 23:45:02. Analysts noted two maximums significantly deviating from the day''s median, one of which was a sharp increase to 0.83095 at 01:05:02. Despite these irregular fluctuations, the exchange rate consistently circled around the 0.809 – 0.810 range, remarkably returning to this mid-range level after each sharp fall or rise. This unexpected volatility has economic pundits questioning the reasons behind these swings, given that the AZN''s exchange rates usually display a smoother pattern. Some believe these sways could be linked to international oil prices since Azerbaijan''s economy heavily relies on oil exports. Rising crude oil prices often strengthen the AZN, while falling prices have a tendency to weaken it. However, this speculation has not been substantiated, as oil prices were relatively stable throughout the same period, making the connection between the two less obvious. Others have considered the geopolitical situation in the region as a potential influence. Recent tensions with neighboring Armenia could have induced financial market instability reflected in these rate fluctuations. The implications of these unexpected shifts could be far-ranging. Investors holding portfolios dominated by AZN-based assets are advised to monitor the situation closely, as their investments'' value could be significantly impacted if this volatility persists. From an economic standpoint, if these swings reflect underlying economic instability, it could impact the central bank''s monetary policies. This uncertainty might drive the central bank to adopt a defensive interest rate posture to prevent the situation from escalating into a full-blown financial crisis. While the causes remain unclear, what is certain is that all eyes will remain on the AZN in the coming days. As the market tries to decipher whether these fluctuations were merely a blip or the harbinger of more tumultuous times to come, market players should stay highly vigilant. AZN Exchange Rate Exhibits Unforeseen Volatility

Current Middle Market Exchange Rate

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