Zambian Kwacha Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Trend Analysis

From the dataset provided, there is an overall noticeable downward trend in ZMW exchange rates from 2024-04-22 to 2024-04-26. Starting with a high of 0.0535 on 22nd April 2024, there is a gradual decline to the lowest value of 0.05156 on 26th April 2024. The downward trend implies that the value of the ZMW is decreasing against the unspecified base currency over the given period. This could be due to various economic factors that are not mentioned in the task.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

From the provided dataset, it's quite difficult to accurately perceive a clear seasonal fluctuation or recurring pattern of ZMW exchange rates within these five days. However, from the hourly data available, it may be observed that we generally see a slight decline in rates during the early hours (01:00:02 - 02:00:02) and late hours (22:00:03 - 23:00:02) of each day.

3. Outliers and Unexpected Observations

No significant outliers or unexpected observations can be clearly identified in this dataset considering it's a short span of time and exchange rates do vary from time to time. However, there is a noticeable drop in the exchange rate on 2024-04-24 at 08:00:02 from 0.05315 to 0.05248 which is a significant change within a short period. While this may not be classified as an outlier without further statistical analysis, it is definitely a point of interest given the relatively stable nature of the data surrounding it.

Please note, this analysis was done purely on the basis of the provided data and without factoring in any external elements such as financial news, market condition, etc. as instructed. Additionally, given the dataset spanning just over 4 days, determining a reliable and consistent trend, seasonality, or identifying outliers is challenging.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis Result

Before arriving at insights, note that, despite the granularity of the data appearing to be at five-minute intervals, there were missing data points at certain periods. Those missing data points were not filled in because no specification was made about how to handle them.

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The exchange rate for ZMW against the unspecified currency began from 0.05188. It experienced minor fluctuations throughout the specific period and closed at 0.05160. While the rate oscillated several times by minor increments, overall it decreased slightly. The downward trend, however, is barely noticeable given the small difference. This relatively flat trend suggests that during this period the ZMW exchange rate was pretty stable.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

On a granular level, it's hard to discern any specific patterns or seasonality from the given dataset. The exchange rate marginally swings up and down within a small range, with no clear signs of recurring patterns or identifiable peaks or troughs. The changes in the exchange rate are minor and do not follow an identifiably regular pattern within the given timeframe. Therefore, on this basis, we can't assert any seasonality in the dataset.

3. Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly based on the trend or seasonality

The dataset does not exhibit any noticeable outliers or instances where the exchange rate experienced a significant leap. The maximum rate in the set is 0.05190, and the minimum is 0.05154. This small range of values suggests no significant rate deviations exist in the dataset, and the exchange rate remained quite steady.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis

The provided series of data represents changes in the ZMW exchange rate at different timestamps on April 25, 2024.

Overall Trend

The exchange rate seems to be modestly decreasing over the given timestamp. The exchange rate starts at 0.05248 at the beginning timestamp (00:00:02) then sees a moderate decrease and arrives at 0.05188 by the last timestamp (23:55:02).

Seasonality or recurring patterns

On a closer examination of the data, it appears there's no clear seasonality or recurring pattern. The highest frequency of changes in the exchange rate appears more random and does not demonstrate a cyclical pattern within the given timestamp. This might suggest the presence of various influencing factors, or that the time frame analyzed is too short to exhibit clear seasonality.

Outliers

Most of the exchange rates in the dataset stayed within a narrow range. The major outlier is the sudden dip to 0.05192 at 06:20:02, which quickly recovered to the initial range. It also worth mentioning the slight spike of the exchange rate to 0.05214 at 08:15:02.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

Based on the time series data provided, a comprehensive analysis of the Zambian kwacha (ZMW) exchange rate was done, taking into consideration the trend, seasonality, and any outliers. Here are the major findings.

1. Trend Analysis:

The overall trend of the ZMW exchange rate during the period shown exhibits minor fluctuations. It started at 0.05308 and ended at 0.05248. Thus, it shows a slight downward trend overall. The peak value lies at 0.05317 while the lowest value is at 0.05236. The exchange rate appears to be slightly volatile but within a very narrow range.

2. Seasonality:

As for seasonality, in this particular dataset and the given timestamp, there doesn't appear to be a strong or repetitive pattern. The rate generally fluctuates around a specific range, indicating there may not be a significant seasonal variance within the course of a day.

3. Outliers:

Upon reviewing the data, there does not seem to be any significant outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what is generally observed in the trend. The biggest drop in exchange rate occurs from 0.05317 to 0.05239. However, this drop is still relatively small and might be due to routine transactions.

In summary, the ZMW exchange rate during this time period shows a minor downward trend, no significant seasonal patterns, and no significant outliers. Given the context and constraints, this analysis excludes potential impacts of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of Exchange Rate Data

First things first, it is essential to mention that the timestamps given are in a five-minute interval. The data suggests the observations were made 24/7 as we see timestamps for all hours and days during the presented period. Now, here are the detailed analysis findings:

1. Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the exchange rate data shows a fluctuation range. However, towards the end of the dataset, there's a slightly lower range. No significant increase or decrease trend is noted over the time frame provided. The rates remain relatively consistent within the range 0.05285 to 0.05314.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the short period of the dataset (only from 2024-04-23 00:00:02 to 2024-04-23 23:55:02), it's challenging to identify any seasonal patterns. Recurring daily patterns could only be effectively identified with data over a more extended period. However, the dataset shows small fluctuations between certain ranges within short periods throughout the day, which could be a sign of intraday trading volatility.

3. Outliers and Large Fluctuations

Within the given dataset, the rates seem to remain within a consistent range without large spikes or drops, indicating low volatility. After scanning through the dataset, no significant outliers were identified in this exchange rate. The observed rates were overall stable and stayed within a narrow scope.

In conclusion, this analysis provides insight into the currency exchange rate's behavior during a single day. The fluctuating yet stable range suggests controlled trading activity. For a more comprehensive understanding of the exchange rate's behavior, more elaborate data for an extended duration, including days, weeks, and months, would be required. The observed movement and fluctuations could be due to regular market trading activities, which inherently have a level of volatility.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

The provided dataset depicts the exchange rate fluctuation of a specific currency (ZMW) over time. By analyzing this dataset, we can derive some insights on its performance trends, potential recurring patterns, and any notable outliers. Here is the detailed interpretation:

Trend Analysis

Over the considerable period captured by this data, there seems to be a slow but overall reduction in the ZMW exchange rate. The rate starts at an initial value of 0.0535 and gradually reduces to a final recorded value of 0.05308. This trend might imply that the forex market for ZMW has experienced a slight depreciation over this period. However, the marginal rate of decrease is quite small suggesting a reasonable level of stability in its forex performance.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

On a closer examination of the data, there don't appear to be distinct seasonality patterns or truly repetitive fluctuations at regular intervals. The exchange rate demonstrates minor variability, oscillating between specific close ranges, but without a clear repetitive pattern that could hint at a seasonal effect. This indicates that this particular exchange rate might not be largely impacted by time-dependent factors, or the data period may not be long enough to exhibit the full seasonal fluctuation.

Outliers and Anomalies Observation

Outliers in exchange rate data usually present as sharp hikes or drops contrasting the general trend. In our dataset, significant anomalies are not readily observable. A minor drop can be noted around the timestamp '2024-04-22 06:25:02' where the rate drops marginally from 0.05348 to 0.05309. While this is noticeable within the context of this dataset, it's relatively small and can still be within common market fluctuation bounds. Therefore, it's arguable whether it qualifies as a genuine outlier.

In conclusion, the ZMW exchange rate within this dataset displays an overall declining trend and does not appear to follow a clear-cut seasonal pattern. The absence of significant outliers indicates a general stability in the exchange rate with only slight fluctuations within the observed timeframe.