Turkmenistan New Manat Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

After analyzing the dataset, it seems that there is no clear upward or downward trend impacting the TMT exchange rates over the given period. While there are slight fluctuations, the rates remain mostly stable, typically staying within the range of 0.38932 and 0.39207.

Minor Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon observation, no strong or clear seasonal patterns were discovered within the dataset. The TMT exchange rates don't appear to undergo recurring fluctuations at specific times regularly. However, this doesn't eliminate the possibility of minor, less noticeable patterns. Additional and more sophisticated statistical analysis may uncover subtle patterns not immediately apparent through observation alone.

Outliers and Unusual Data Points

• The lowest rate during the time frame is 0.38932, which occurred at the timestamp "2024-04-25 13:00:02". This could be considered an outlier when compared to the overall trend of the dataset.
• The highest rate recorded is 0.39207 at timestamp "2024-04-24 11:00:03", which may also be considered an outlier as it deviates from the stable trend.

It’s important to note that outliers don’t always signify a problem. Sometimes they might merely represent natural variance in the data, sometimes they might suggest the impact of an external event (which wasn't considered in this analysis).

Conclusion

In view of the data provided, the TMT exchange rates maintained a substantial level of stability. Though there were minor ups and downs, those changes did not appear to follow a specific identifiable upward or downward trend or reveal a visible pattern. Periods of significant deviation from the general range were relatively rare, suggesting a relatively stable exchange rate environment in the given period.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Data curation:

Your data, containing timestamps and TMT exchange rates, has been carefully examined. The data spans a period from midnight on April 26th, 2024, till approximately 14:55 on the same day.

Understanding the Overall Trend:

Upon analyzing the data, one generally observes an overall stable trend for this brief period. In the initial section, the rate ranges from approximately 0.39 to 0.3901, with minor fluctuations but no substantial change. The exchange rate experiences a slight decrease around the timestamp of 01:00:02; this is followed by a somewhat steady state till near 02:00:02. Then there is a minor increase before the rate starts slowly decreasing again until about 03:10:01, where it gradually increases.

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After the 03:10:01 mark, the exchange rate appears to be in a state of minimal but cyclical trend until about 06:55:02. Afterward, the rate gradually rises with some fluctuations until around 09:55:02. Post this timestamp, the exchange rate can be observed to follow a continuous and substantial uptrend until around 10:15:02; this is the highest point within the dataset. After peaking, the exchange rate appears to show a general declining trend but with fluctuations until the end of the dataset at 14:55:01.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns:

Given the data is only for a single day, it is challenging to infer any long-term or medium-term seasonality. However, on a short time frame, minor fluctuations are observable, suggesting a possible intraday pattern. These intraday patterns indicate that rates decrease, stabilize, and then rise within particular short-term periods throughout the day.

Identifying Outliers:

Based on the provided data, a major outlier isn't clearly noticeable. However, there seems to be an irregular spike in the exchange rate around 10:15:02, reaching the highest rate within the dataset. Similarly, a noticeable trough is observed around 01:45:02, representing the lowest point in the dataset.

Overall Conclusion:

In conclusion, during the day, exchange rates display a cyclical pattern, indicating a possibility of intraday trends. The primary notable observation is that rates appear to increase notably in the hours of 09:55:03 to 10:15:02, after which a declining trend with fluctuations persists until the dataset's end. This trend analysis gives useful insights into the intraday patterns and trends of the TMT's exchange rates.

Please note this analysis is purely based on the specified dataset and does not consider the potential influence of external market factors or specific events.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

First and foremost, we will look at the overall trend of this time-series data. From the initial analysis, it can be concluded that the overall trend of the exchange rates over the surveyed time period indicates some form of stability with minor variations. The TMT exchange rate starts and ends at around 0.390. However, there exist tiny dips and surges between these points giving an appearance of a subtle hill-valley formation - indicating a fluctuating trend.

Recurring Patterns and Seasonality

It's difficult to directly infer seasonality or recurring patterns from this dataset as it only covers a single day's timeframe. For a deeper and more accurate identification of seasonality trends, data covering numerous cycles (typically, multiple years) would be more suitable. This helps in identifying recurrent yearly, quarterly, or monthly patterns, if any. Nonetheless, it's worth mentioning that some minor variations in the exchange rates can be observed at regular intervals indicating potential intraday patterns, which might be attributable to the trading behavior.

Outliers and Unexpected Rate Changes

No significant outliers or unexpected rate changes can be detected from the provided data. The exchange rate floats around 0.390 for the most part with frequent but minor fluctuations. The smallest observed rate is 0.38928 at the times 13:10:03 and 13:15:03, and the highest is 0.39107 around the 08:15:02 mark. These do not seem to be significant deviations to classify them as outliers, especially given the foreign exchange market is a highly volatile one.

To conclude, while this simple analysis provides some insights, for more advanced interpretations including volatility, trend strength, and predictive modeling, more sophisticated methods like statistical modeling and machine learning might be necessary.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview and Trend Analysis

From the data, the overall exchange rate of TMT seems fairly stable. The exchange rate moves in a small range, indicating that there is relative stability in the market. Although there are minor fluctuations, the trend line would likely show a flat slope, indicating little to no increase or decrease overall.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

The timestamps provided do not cover a sufficiently long period to fully determine seasonality or recurring patterns. Analysis of seasonality generally needs several years worth of data to confirm if there is any cyclical fluctuation pattern over different periods. However, there is a noticeable pattern in the provided data: within each day, the exchange rate appears to have slight undulations, suggesting intra-day volatility.

Notable Outliers and Volatility

While several data points diverge from the average, there are no significant outliers or major spikes that suggest an unexpected event influencing the exchange rates drastically. The general stability of the dataset, along with the absence of extreme outliers, suggests a lesser degree of volatility. It indicates that there are no significant shocks or abrupt market movements during the period in the dataset.

Impact of External Events

As requested, the analysis does not take into account specific events or periods like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. However, it's important to remember that such events often have significant impacts on exchange rates in real-world situations.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of TMT Exchange Rates

The provided dataset indicates the TMT exchange rate over the course of a single day, specifically on 23rd April 2024. Looking at the start and end values, the exchange rate appears to decrease slightly over the day. The day starts with an exchange rate of roughly 0.39139 and ends with approximately 0.39043. However, it's not a consistent decrement as the rate fluctuates throughout the day.

Recurring Patterns in the Exchange Rates

As the data is limited to a single day, it is difficult to infer a certain seasonal trend or recurring pattern. However, intraday analysis shows that the exchange rate experienced highs and lows throughout the day. Notably, the highest rate for that day was around 0.39182 while the lowest is around 0.39016.

Outliers in TMT Exchange Rates

On this particular day, there are slight fluctuations in the rate but no significant deviation or outliers were detected. It's important to remember that subtle changes in exchange rates within a day could still have a tangible impact on profit margins, especially for high volume transactions. It would be beneficial to analyze the data over a broader time span, such as over months or years, to construct a more robust trend analysis, identify potential seasonality, and better detect any outliers.

Note: To ascertain reliable insights, it'll be quite useful to investigate additional data from more time periods. A single day's data is typically inadequate to determine comprehensive trends and patterns. Likewise, checking the exchange rates against certain external events, market conditions and/or financial news would yield a more sophisticated analysis.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

After examining the time series data given, it can be observed that the overall trend of the TMT exchange rate is relatively stable with minor fluctuations. There’s no clear-cut evidence of a consistent increase or decrease during this period. The rates varied between approximately 0.390 and 0.392 units throughout the given timeframe.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data does not clearly suggest a specific pattern within the given timestamps. Small crests and troughs exist around certain intervals, but these do not appear to follow a consistent cycle or recurrence. It is important to note that without incorporating external factors like specific event occurrence or weekly cyclical patterns due to market activity or financial news releases, identifying a seasonality might be challenging here.

3. Outliers in the Exchange Rates

The dataset appears to be relatively smooth without any significant spikes or drops indicative of outliers. Since outliers are generally detected as values that deviate significantly from the overall pattern or trend, the absence of such a value implies that there are no outliers within this dataset. Therefore, all values of the exchange rate remain within a reasonable range of fluctuation and follow the prevalent trend.

Conclusion

As a whole, the interpretation of this dataset portrays a stable landscape for the TMT exchange rate. Despite small fluctuations, the rate remained relatively consistent throughout the covered period. Furthermore, there was no clear evidence of repeated or recurring trends in this dataset. This seems to reflect a period of stability with insignificant disturbances. As a financial analyst, it's essential to remember that the examination of time series data, like this, can offer invaluable insights into potential trends, anomalies, and patterns; however, it might not always signal future behaviours accurately.