Nuevo Sol Forecast

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the PEN exchange rate with respect to the given time-series data indicates slight volatility. The initial exchange rate is 0.36815 and hits a peak of 0.37237 before gradually declining to 0.36371. This shows that the PEN exchange rate tends to decrease over the period. However, it should also be noted that there are certain periods where the exchange rate increases slightly before continuing its decline.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

While it is somewhat difficult to identify any specific seasonality or recurring pattern in the fluctuations of the PEN exchange rate without knowing the associated events, a general observation can be made. The data seems to indicate a daily cycle where the exchange rate somewhat peaks and valleys. However, this cycle seems to have a downward bias in the dataset provided, as the peaks over successive days appear lower and lower. But these interpretations need more robust statistical analyses to confirm.

Outliers in the Exchange Rates

• The sudden jump in exchange rate from 0.36795 to 0.37222 on 2024-04-22 could potentially be an outlier. This represents a disparate increase relative to the preceding and succeeding values.
• The sudden drop of exchange rate at 0.36357 on 2024-04-26 compared to its previous values could also be considered an outlier. It's significantly lower compared to previous data points.

It's necessary to stress that the identification of outliers purely based on observation could be subjective and hence, more sophisticated statistical tests might be required for accurate detection.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis of the Exchange Rate

Based on the provided time-series data, it is observed that the PEN exchange rate has a fluctuating trend within the range of approximately 0.36365 to 0.36619 over the time period mentioned. There does not seem to be a distinctive upward or downward trend within this time period, suggesting the exchange rate is somewhat stable with minor fluctuations.

2. Seasonality and Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, with the granularity of data given (5-minute intervals), it's challenging to discern a clear pattern within just a single day's data provided. Exchange rates are typically influenced by various economic indicators and market events, which are not apparent in this small dataset. However, there are slight variations of rates within specific hours which may suggest potential hourly patterns, a further and wider range dataset is required to ascertain this.

3. Identification of Outliers

As for outliers in the data, between the timestamps '2024-04-26 06:20:02' and '2024-04-26 06:25:02’, there is a sudden drop in the exchange rate from 0.36602 to 0.36367. This observational change is significantly different from the minor fluctuations seen in the majority of the dataset and could be considered an outlier. This might indicate a significant event during this period that affected the exchange rate. Therefore, it may be beneficial to investigate further to gain a deeper understanding of the specific factors leading to this sharp rate drop.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The data provided shows changes to the PEN exchange rate over time. In reviewing this data, an overall downward trend of PEN exchange rates is observed within the given timeframe. The exchange rate started from 0.36955 and ended at 0.36604. However, the movement of the rates is not linear, showing several fluctuations during the period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Seasonality or recurring patterns are not particularly evident from the given dataset. The rates show fluctuations throughout, but these do not appear to follow any defined, repeating pattern that could signify seasonality. More data is required for a complete evaluation of potential seasonality; ideally, these data should cover multiple cycles of whatever seasonal period is expected (e.g., daily, monthly, yearly).

Outliers in Exchange Rates

Generally, the exchange rates fluctuate within a small range. However, there is a noticeable drop around the timestamp 2024-04-25 06:25:02, where the rate drops significantly from 0.36905 to 0.36633. Unless this can be correlated to a specific event or influence, this could be considered an outlier, or a point of significant deviation from the trend observed for the rest of the period.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of PEN Exchange Rate Data

Reading through the provided timestamped exchange rate data, certain trends, patterns, and irregularities become apparent. The comprehensive analysis of your dataset includes evaluating the overall trend, seasonality patterns, and outliers in the data.

1. Overall Trend

The initial observation of the dataset shows that the PEN exchange rate fluctuates across the data timeline. The rate started at 0.37125, dipped to around 0.36873, and finally ended at about 0.36958. This indicates that there's a marginal depreciation of the currency over the timeline. However, within this period, significant fluctuations in rate values have been identified.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

On a minute glance at the provided timestamped data, there does not appear to be a clear seasonality or recurring pattern. The data is quite sporadic with no obvious periodic upturns or downturns. However, to make a more objective statement, sophisticated time-series analysis techniques that fall outside the scope of this initial analysis would be necessary.

3. Outliers

Across the dataset, there are a few times where large jumps in the exchange rate occur. For example, it dropped significantly from 0.37187 to 0.36891 between the timestamps '2024-04-24 06:20:02' and '2024-04-24 06:50:02'. These sudden changes are outliers as they represent a significant deviation from the rate's typical incremental changes. It should be checked whether these instances are data errors or actual abrupt changes in the exchange rate.

In conclusion, this preliminary analysis shows that the PEN exchange rate experiences a marginal overall depreciation, doesn't exhibit clear seasonal patterns, and has several significant outliers. More intricate methodologies are required for a more profound and insightful understanding of this time-series financial data.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Looking at the provided time series data, we can observe a generally small variability in the exchange rate from a minimum of approximately 0.3695 to a maximum of approximately 0.3724. Despite some small dips and peaks, the trend over the period does not indicate any sharp increases or decreases. It seems to be somewhat stable. However, there seems to have been a significant dip at the timestamp 2024-04-23 06:25:02, which then recovered over time.

2. Seasonality Analysis

The dataset provided does not cover a sufficiently long period to make definitive conclusions about seasonality or recurring patterns. Seasonality typically occurs over a fixed period, for example, a particular increase or decrease every year or every quarter. Considering just a day's worth of data does not offer enough information to identify any seasonal patterns. The periodicity would need to cover multiple cycles of the potential recurring pattern to confirm any seasonality.

3. Outliers Analysis

There are no significant outliers in the given dataset. The exchange rates remain relatively stable, with some small troughs and peaks, as mentioned above. The most noticeable dip in the exchange rate happens at the timestamp 2024-04-23 06:25:02. However, it quickly recovers. Other than this event, no other substantial unexpected movements in the exchange rates occur that can be classified as outliers.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overview of the Exchange Rates

Upon analysis of your data, one can observe that the exchange rate of the PEN (Peruvian Nuevo Sol) had been generally stable but showing some fluctuations. The rates open the day on 22 April 2024 at around 0.36816 and rise to a daily high of around 0.37281. The lowest rate of the day is seen at around 0.3679. There is no clear trend of a general increase or decrease over the period under consideration. It shows the exchange rates had been mostly oscillating around a particular range.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

There doesn't appear to be any consistent and pronounced seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates data over a single 24-hour period. The overall market for the currency seems to be efficient with exchange rates reflecting news and events quickly. There are some periods of relative stability and others with more oscillation, but there are irregular intervals between such periods, so they don't constitute a seasonal pattern.

Outliers Detected

You will notice some outliers in the exchange rates, where the exchange rates show small but sudden increases or drops. Significant dips and rises can be noticed at times such as around 06:25 (climbing towards 0.37208), 13:15 (rising even up to 0.37055), and 20:05 (spotting an increase to around 0.37184). These sudden movements may be due to specific, unpredictable market events or possibly even a large transaction affecting the exchange rate temporarily.