Algerian Dinar Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Summary of Yesterday

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Understanding the Overall Trend

The data provided gives a snapshot of the DZD exchange rate from 22nd April, 2024 01:00:02 to 26th April, 2024 14:00:01. The exchange rate appears relatively stable overall throughout this period, fluctuating approximately between 0.01013 and 0.0102. The data does not exhibit an explicit increasing or decreasing trend over this period. Rather, it shows a very slight oscillation within the mentioned range.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given the window of data provided, it is difficult to make definitive statements regarding seasonality and recurring patterns. Financial data would typically require a larger window, or data over multiple similar periods (days, weeks, months) to robustly identify recurrent patterns. Still, the subtle oscillation we mentioned in the overall trend section could suggest a possible intraday pattern and may require further analysis with wider data.

Identifying Outliers

The data does not seem to contain any significant outliers. The exchange rate behaves within a narrow range throughout the period of analysis. However, financial data have intrinsic random walks or "noise." Outliers hence would be points that significantly deviate from the 0.01013 to 0.0102 band.

Please note these observations could be influenced by external market events, regulatory announcements, economic reports, or global geopolitical events that we are not considering in this particular analysis. Furthermore, the data considered is relatively short termed. A more extended period or additional variables could provide a more comprehensive view of the DZD exchange rate trend, seasonality, and potential outliers.

The period we are inspecting, less than a week, might be too short to disclose more profound financial trends, seasonality, or outliers. The longer the period of data available, the better we can make forecasts or identify patterns. However, considering the data you have given, our analysis is based on that.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the DZD exchange rates provided in the dataset shows a general stability. The rates started at 0.01015 at the beginning of the timestamp, reduced slightly to 0.01013, and eventually increased to end at 0.01018. This minimal fluctuation in the exchange rates reflects a generally stable market condition during this period.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon inspecting the dataset, there seem to be no discernible recurring patterns or seasonality in the data. The rates exhibit minute fluctuations throughout the time period but without any evident repeated cyclical behavior. Such absence of seasonality might be associated with a robust market structure or the hours during which the data was collected, where no significant shifts in the financial landscape occurred.

3. Noting Any Outliers

Because of the relative stability of the rates throughout the time series, no standout outliers are identified. The exchange rates range between 0.01012 and 0.01019, which is a very slight variation. Any minor deviations from the generally stable rate (e.g., the lowest value of 0.01012) are too close to the majority of data points to be considered outliers. This implies that during this specific period, the market was mostly free from unexpected shocks or major news that would significantly alter the exchange rates.

Concluding Remarks

In conclusion, the provided dataset for DZD exchange rates shows a stable trend over time with no clear seasonality or outliers. The rates remained fairly steady throughout the period, suggesting a stable financial environment with no significant upheavals. It’s important to remember that these findings are strictly based on the provided dataset and does not consider external macroeconomic variables or events, which are often crucial in fully understanding market dynamics and trends.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Firstly, we'll clean the data provided to confirm if it consists of regular intervals and if there are any gaps in the data. We'll then assess each of the elements specified.

Understanding the overall trend of exchange rates

The exchange rates appear to follow a relatively stable trend over the given time frame. Detailed examination reveals only minute fluctuations, which are typical in active markets. The rate primarily revolves around 0.01014 and 0.01018, indicating a relative stability in the shorter term. However, the dataset provides insufficient data to establish a long-term trend or verify the consistency of this stability.

Recurring patterns and seasonality

Within the bounds of the provided data, no clear recurring patterns or seasonality can be observed. Any daily pattern seems to be minor and swallowed by the overall stability of the rate. To effectively observe seasonality, it would require hourly data over a more extended period. According to the provided data, the DZD exchange rate remains relatively unmoved even at different periods of the day.

Outliers in the dataset

Given the scale of fluctuations in the exchange rates, we could not identify any significant outliers in the provided data. The rates, from the highest at 0.01022 to the lowest at 0.01013, follow a predictably quiet pattern with no unexpected peaks or dips. This suggests a steady condition with little volatility during the dataset's time span.

It's crucial to remember that these findings are limited to the specific time span of the dataset, and ongoing monitoring would be required to keep track of imminent changes.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The provided dataset indicates a very stable trend in the exchange rate of DZD over the given time frame. The value of DZD primarily fluctuates between 0.01016 and 0.01022, with minute oscillations throughout the period shown. This suggests an overall stable trend with very slight variances.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the proximity of the maximum and minimum values, it's difficult to precisely pinpoint any cyclic variations at a granular time level. However, a subtle pattern can be observed where the exchange rate fluctuates mildly within the tight range. Further analysis with a larger dataset and longer timeframe would provide better insights into any potential cyclical nature of the exchange rate.

Outliers in the Dataset

With the values mostly remaining within the narrow range throughout the period shown, no significant outliers can be identified based on the current dataset. Every rate logged falls within close proximity of the others, indicating a consistent exchange rate without any dramatic peaks or dips.

In conclusion, the exchange rate has shown a considerable level of stability during the period shown. A marginally undulating pattern is exhibited within the small range, but no conspicuous seasonal patterns or outliers are identifiable from the current dataset. This analysis focusses solely on the dataset provided and does not consider any specific external environment factors, such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the initial evaluation of the dataset, the exchange rate appears to be relatively steady. It starts from 0.01017 and ends at 0.01016 suggesting that the DZD exchange rate remains essentially stable during the observed period. There seem to be minor fluctuations, moving from a minimum of 0.01015 to a maximum of 0.0102, indicating a fluctuation range of 0.00005. Hence, the overall change over the time period can be considered negligible as it tends to revert back to a similar range from where it started.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns in Exchange Rates

Regarding the notion of seasonality or recurring patterns, this would typically require a more detailed examination of the data, potentially over a longer timeframe or with regards to specific timestamps (for example, examining the open and close of the market day). However, from the dataset provided, it may be challenging to accurately identify recurring patterns due to the relatively stable nature of the DZD exchange rates. Any minute variations that do occur do not seem to follow a definitive pattern that can be deemed as seasonal.

3. Identification of Outliers

In terms of outliers, the dataset appears to be mostly consistent with minimal variations. Given the small range of values (0.01015 to 0.0102), any significant deviations from these values could be considered as potential outliers. However, upon review of the dataset provided, no such instances appear to be present. The DZD exchange rate remains within the expected range throughout the observed period, indicating an absence of notable outliers within this dataset.

Summary of Last Month

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Overview of the DZD Exchange Rate

From the data analysis, the exchange rate of DZD shows a slight fluctuation within a small range. The maximum recorded DZD exchange rate is 0.01021, while the minimum rate is 0.01015. The median rate is somewhere around 0.01018. The data doesn't indicate a clear increasing or decreasing pattern over time, suggesting a relatively stable exchange rate during the observed period.

Seasonality

The dataset does not exhibit clear seasonality or recurring patterns within the hourly data. The observations show minor variations without a consistent repeatable pattern. However, we might need more extensive data, covering multiple days or months, to delineate any potential daily or monthly patterns.

Outliers and Noteworthy Observations

While the change in the DZD exchange rate is relatively minimal, there are a few instances where there are consecutive observations of the same values, which results in periods of stability in the exchange rate. The deviation from these stable periods could be considered outliers. However, these fluctuations are insignificant and lie within the general behavior of the data.

Consideration of External Factors

As instructed, this analysis did not account for any specific external events like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. This analysis purely focused on the number trends and patterns that are observable within the dataset. It is worth noting that incorporating such external factors may provide a more holistic understanding of the exchange rate behavior.

Future Forecast

The analysis did not include a forecast of future exchange rates following the instructions. That said, with existing data, predictive models could be implemented to provide an estimated trend of the DZD exchange rate. However, it's important to remember that exchange rates can be significantly impacted by external events, and any prediction will inherently contain uncertainty.

Conclusion

The DZD exchange rate demonstrates a stable behavior with minor fluctuations and no clear increasing or decreasing pattern. No significant outliers or seasonal effects are discerned. Future datasets covering a longer time frame or incorporating external factors may provide a more detailed understanding of the influences and behavior of the DZD exchange rates.