Ngultrum Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

The overall trend of the BTN exchange rate appears to be fairly stable throughout the period, ranging from approx 0.01639 to 0.01650. Although there are minor fluctuations within this range, there is no clear trend of increase or decrease in the exchange rate observed.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

It seems there is no observable seasonality in the exchange rate based on the timestamps provided. If there were, one might expect to see regular patterns repeating at fixed intervals such as daily or hourly. However, in this dataset, the exchange rates show small fluctuations only and seem to be independent of a particular time.

Outliers

In the current dataset, there is no outlier observed. An outlier in this context would mean a significantly high or low exchange rate compared to the normal exchange rates throughout the dataset. However, the rates provided in the data seem to fall within a small range without any drastic peaks or dips.

Considerations

Though external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can significantly impact exchange rates, these factors were not considered for this analysis as requested.

Please note that the analysis provided here is based on the data provided and doesn't consider any deep-rooted external factors potentially affecting the exchange rates. For a more detailed and nuanced understanding, complex financial models, larger datasets covering an extensive period, and consideration of macroeconomic factors would be required.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the BTN exchange rate over this time is persistently stable. The rate begins with a value of 0.01641 on 2024-04-26 00:00:02 and doesn't deviate significantly over the course of the time series data. The maximum value of BTN is 0.01644, and the minimum value is 0.01639. The trade happens at an average rate of ~0.01641, signifying very little fluctuation. As such, the exchange rates have neither generally increased nor decreased in a significant or noticeable way, indicating a very stable exchange rate for BTN.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the data set provided, there's no obvious seasonality or recurring pattern. The exchange rate data doesn't demonstrate consistent, repeated fluctuations that would indicate a cyclical or seasonal trend. Any small fluctuations appear to be random rather than part of a larger repeating pattern.

Outliers Noted

No significant outliers have been identified. All values reside in a very narrow range between 0.01639 and 0.01644, with only minor fluctuation. Deviation from the average is extremely low, suggesting that all given rates are relatively consistent with the overall trend. Therefore, there are no instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend.

Note: As per the instructions, this analysis did not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. These could potentially play a role in the slight deviations noted.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The overall trend of the BTN exchange rates is relatively stable. The rates seem to fluctuate around a mean value of approximately 0.01644. The slight fluctuation pattern appears to be fairly consistent throughout the dataset, with no significant uptrend or downtrend. However, there is a slight, gradual decrease in the rates between the timestamps '2024-04-25 00:00:02' and '2024-04-25 14:15:03', with a slight increase thereafter.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In this dataset, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns are immediately identifiable. The rates do not demonstrate a consistent pattern of increase or decrease at specific intervals. However, it should be noted that a more thorough time series analysis with advanced techniques such as autocorrelation and spectral analysis would provide a more conclusive answer regarding seasonal trends.

Outliers and Unexpected Values

Considering the steady nature of the data, the occurrence of any significant outliers is highly unexpected. As per the data presented, there are no significant outliers or extremely unexpected values. Nonetheless, against the backdrop of the steady decrease in rates, slight upticks, such as the one at '2024-04-25 08:10:02' from 0.01646 to 0.01650, could be seen as minor inconsistencies, though they do not constitute statistical outliers.

A comprehensive overview would necessitate statistical analysis tools for identifying outliers, threshold fluctuations and more precise trend detection. Remember, financial markets are dynamic, the absence of noticeable patterns or outliers in this dataset does not imply future datasets on BTN exchange rate would remain the same.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Given the dataset, the overall trend of the exchange rates appears to be fluctuating within a minor range. The rate starts at 0.01648, hovering at this level for a considerable duration before descending to the lowest point of 0.01642. Eventually, it slightly recovers to hovering around the 0.01646 level towards the end. The exchange rates seem relatively stable overall with no significant increase or decrease trend can be recognized from the data.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In viewing a time-series dataset, particularly in the case of exchange rates, seasonality or recurring patterns often appear. This case, however, is mildly challenging to distinguish any clear recurring pattern or seasonality based on the dataset provided due to the small fluctuation range. The values only fluctuate within a range of 0.00008, which, while noteworthy in the financial world, is not significant for raw visual interpretation.

3. Outliers Identification

Regarding the identification of outliers, it can be challenging as the data seems quite stable overall. Considering the fact that the BTN exchange rate only fluctuates within a tiny margin, the volatility is not significant. It remains consistent throughout the timeframe provided. Therefore, the lack of more extreme fluctuations makes outlier identification less visible within this dataset.

4. External Factors Consideration

It was mentioned not to take into consideration any specific events or external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Therefore, this entire analysis was conducted solely based on the dataset provided, without any additional context for further insight. Better interpretation could have been made with context as important details could drastically affect how the financial figures should be analyzed and interpreted.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this time-series dataset showcases a mild fluctuation of the BTN exchange rate within a small range, without any significant increase or decrease trend observed. Despite the narrow margin of change, every single shift carries weight in the financial world. To improve the outcome, the dataset would benefit from a wider timeframe for more accurate trends and pattern recognition and the impact of external factors.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Observing the given data, it appears that the BTN exchange rate seen here displays a relatively stable trend over the period shown, with only slight fluctuations in its value. The rate starts at 0.01645 and ends at 0.01648, showing a marginal increase over the period. Without considering any external factors, we can infer that the general trend of the exchange rate is stable with a tiny upward leaning.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Given the data, it's somewhat challenging to pinpoint any clear, recurring seasonal pattern. The rate remains relatively stable throughout the timeframe captured by the data, and while there are minor fluctuations here and there, no discernable pattern or periodicity can be definitively identified.

Outlier Analysis

In the provided dataset, no significant outliers or extreme shifts in the exchange rate are observable. Most of the changes in the exchange rate are in the third and fourth decimal place, which suggests minor fluctuations but no drastic leaps or drops. This analysis solely considers the given dataset and does not take into account the potential impacts of external events or influences.

Overall, based solely on this data, the BTN exchange rate has been quite stable during this period, with small fluctuations but no significant changes or outliers. The absence of seasonal patterns suggests that the changes in the exchange rate might not be strongly tied to the time of year. Of course, a more thorough analysis or model might be required to fully understand the underlying factors influencing the exchange rate dynamics.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall trend of exchange rates

Looking at the provided data, there's remarkably little variation in the exchange rate over the course of the given time frame. Specifically, the exchange rate starts at 0.01646 on 2024-04-22 00:00:02 and essentially remains stable, fluctuating marginally throughout the given time period. An occasional drop to 0.01645 and a slight rise to 0.01647 is noted occasionally, but overall it's relatively stable around 0.01646. Therefore, we can conclude that the overall trend of these exchange rates is of stability.

Seasonality or recurring patterns

Given the lack of significant fluctuation in exchange rates, discerning any distinct seasonality or recurring patterns becomes a challenge. The exchange rate does fluctuate between 0.01645 and 0.01646 a few times, but we can't necessarily conclude that this is evidence of a clear pattern without further data or context. Therefore, based solely on this data, it's not possible to definitively identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates.

Outliers

Outliers in a data set are values that significantly differ from the other observations. In this data, since most of the values range between 0.01645 and 0.01646, an outlier would be a value is significantly higher or lower than these. From the given data, we note a few instances of values going to 0.01647 and down to 0.01644 which deviates from the range of majority of data points. However, these are not significantly different and therefore we don't observe any major outliers in this data set.