Uganda Shilling Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Summary of Yesterday

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Analysis of UGX Exchange Rates

From the given data, I have considered several factors including the overall trend, any recurring patterns or seasonality, outliers, and certain predetermined external factors.

1. Overall Trend

The overall trend of the UGX exchange rates from 22nd April 2024 to 26th April 2024 is stable. The exchange rate remains constant at 0.00036 throughout the given period. There is no visible increase or decrease in the rates.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Given that the exchange rate value stayed the same over the span of multiple days, it is difficult to determine any seasonality or recurring patterns based on this dataset. There was no fluctuation in the rate, hence no visible pattern or seasonality can be identified.

3. Outliers

As per the provided dataset, since the exchange rate remained consistently at 0.00036, there are no observable outliers. The value of the exchange rate didn't show any significant deviation from the constant value during this period.

Conclusion

To sum up, the UGX exchange rate remained completely stable over the specified period. This could imply a period of very low market volatility or lack of impactful external events influencing the exchange rate of UGX. However, as the range of the dataset is only a few days, a broader period may provide different insights and patterns.

Please note that these results were based solely on the provided dataset. Further and more detailed financial analysis could be performed considering additional data or other economic factors contributing to exchange rate fluctuations.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Looking at the given time series data, the exchange rate for UGX stays constant at 0.00036 across all the provided timestamps. Given this observation, it can be concluded that the exchange rate remains completely stable throughout the time period shown, as there is no increase or decrease in the rate.

Seasonality Analysis and Recurring Patterns

Since the UGX exchange rate data maintains a consistent value of 0.00036 across the dataset, there appears to be no visible seasonality or recurring pattern. The data does not exhibit any varied behavior in terms of daily, weekly, or monthly cycles that could suggest a seasonal trend. The exchange rate is constant and does not illustrate any significant patterns, it remains the same at each point in time.

Outliers and Significant Deviations

With respect to the given dataset, no outliers or points of significant deviation have been detected. An outlier would be considered as a dramatic drop or rise in the UGX exchange rate, which differs greatly from the constant rate of 0.00036. However, all exchange rates in this dataset are identical, meaning that there are no anomalies or unexpected data points based on the trend.

Please note that this analysis is based solely on the data provided, without considering external factors such as market dynamics, the effects of weekends and holidays, or significant economic news or events which could potentially impact the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the data provided, the exchange rate (UGX) appears to be remarkably stable over the time series. There is no visible upward or downward trend. The rate has remained constant at 0.00036 throughout the timeframe, with no fluctuations. It's remarkable for any financial time series data, including foreign exchange rates, which typically experience some degree of volatility and change.

Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In regards to seasonality or recurring patterns, the data, again, is consistent throughout, with no clear recurring patterns or seasonal fluctuations evident. It's noteworthy to have such a level of stability in exchange rates, as they are usually affected by various factors including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market demand.

Noting Outliers

Given the constant value of the UGX exchange rate in the data set, there are no outliers. An outlier in this context would be a significant departure from the prevailing exchange rate of 0.00036, and no such values exist in this dataset.

Lastly, since you specified that we should not consider external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or key financial news and reports, these elements weren't included in the analysis.

In conclusion, this dataset shows an unusual degree of stability in the UGX exchange rate. It might be beneficial to verify the integrity of the data, as such long-term consistency is uncommon for financial markets.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Analysis of the Dataset

The dataset provided includes timestamped exchange rates (UGX) for the date of 2024-04-24, starting from 00:00:02 to 23:55:02. There are several questions to answer as we analyze these data.

Overview of Exchange Rates Trend

Within the provided dataset, the exchange rate (UGX) remains uniform at 0.00036 throughout all timestamps. There is no fluctuation observed during the period. Hence, the trend of exchange rates here can be characterized as extremely stable.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In the context of this dataset, there isn't any detectable seasonality or recurring patterns for the exchange rate. The rate, as stated previously, is exactly the same (0.00036) for all time points. For seasonality or any pattern to be recognized, there would need to be variation in data values during the timeframe, which is not the case here.

Outliers Identification

Without variance in data values, we can decisively state that there are no outliers in this dataset - each data value is a mirror of the others. Therefore from the dataset, no instances can be found where the exchange rate differs significantly, either high or low, from the standard 0.00036.

It's worth mentioning that this analysis is based solely on the given dataset and does not consider external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of vital financial news and reports. Incorporating such variables might reveal further insights that could modify the analysis outcomes.

Please note that this analysis does not generate any forecast for future rates. However, based on this dataset, unless changes such as external market factors or policy amendments are introduced, one could guess the stability might continue into the immediate future.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

From the given dataset, the UGX exchange rate shows a stable trend throughout. The rate stays constant at 0.00036 . There is no discernible variation, neither an increase nor decrease, over the timestamps provided. This might indicate that the currency pair in question remained stable within this timeframe.

Seasonality or Recurring Pattern Analysis

Due to the stability of the exchange rate throughout the dataset and based on the timestamps provided, there is no observable seasonality or recurring pattern in the changes of the UGX exchange rate. A flat and constant rate is encountered at all times, suggesting the absence of intraday seasonal movements, weekly oscillations, or any other chronological-related patterns.

Outliers Analysis

Given the identical values of the UGX exchange rate throughout the data points, there are no outliers present in the dataset. An outlier would indicate a significant deviation from the norm, but since the rate remains stable at 0.00036, there is no deviation from this norm. Therefore, an outlier analysis does not yield any results for this specific dataset.

Final Thoughts

Considering the constant exchange rate in the period covered in this dataset, it seems that the UGX has enjoyed a relatively consistent stability. While this kind of analysis illuminates the behavior of the exchange rate for this period, it is crucial to remember that currency exchange rates can be influenced by many factors not included in this dataset and can change over time. This analysis only represents the dataset provided and does not predict future behaviors.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon studying the dataset consisting of timestamped exchange rate data, it is evident that the exchange rate between the UGX and the dollar remains constant over time. Each timestamp in the data records indicates the exchange rate as 0.00036, with no variation. Therefore, it can be statistically inferred that the exchange rate remains steady over time and does not tend to increase or decrease over the duration in which the data has been captured.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

In terms of patterns and seasonality, due to the constant rate throughout the data set, there's no discernible recurring pattern or seasonality evident in the exchange rate of UGX. The value maintains a steady rate of 0.00036 throughout a wide range of timestamps marked over several hours of the day. Thus, it appears that the UGX exchange rate is not affected by seasonal changes or cyclical factors.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

Similarly, this dataset contains no outliers, as the exchange rate remains fixed at 0.00036 continuously. Because no variation exists in the data set, no significant divergence, remarkable incidents, or anomalies disrupt the existing constant trend in the data set. This signifies a notably stable exchange rate regime for the UGX during this period.