Nepalese Rupee Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Trend

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Based on the data provided, the exchange rates show a stable trend over the observed period. The exchange rates fluctuate between 0.01024 and 0.01031, which suggests minor variations indicative of market dynamics, but no significant trend towards increase or decrease.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

When reviewing the data, it does not appear to show strong evidence of seasonality or recurring patterns. Given the consistency of the exchange rates across different timestamps, the dataset suggests a relatively stable and consistent state in the financial market for the observed period.

Outliers in Exchange Rates

Upon inspecting the dataset for outliers, there do not appear to be instances where the exchange rate deviates significantly from the generally stable trend. The recorded rates stay within a narrow margin around the 0.01027-0.01029 mark, indicating minimal volatility during this period.

Note:

• The analysis was performed purely based on the given dataset, external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports were not considered.
• This analysis does not generate a forecast for future exchange rates; it only conveys an assessment of the provided historical data.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

General Overview of the Data

From reviewing the data it is apparent that the exchange rates are relatively stable over the period shown. The range of the rates is from 0.01024 to 0.01028 which implies minute fluctuations.

Trend Analysis

The rates show no consistent directional change that could indicate a significant upward or downward trend over the timeframe provided. The general trend of exchange rates tends to stable with marginal variance.

Seasonality Analysis

Given the nature of the data - a time-series dataset covering multiple 5-minute intervals, in a single day - it is difficult to determine any seasonality or recurring patterns. Extra data over a greater period would be beneficial to recognize seasonality patterns. However, with the dataset provided, no clear seasonality or recurring patterns are present.

Outliers

In assessing the dataset for outliers, or instances where the exchange rate varies significantly from the norm, it does not appear that there are significant deviations. The rates generally stay within the narrow range of 0.01024 - 0.01028. Yet, the decreasing from 0.01027 to 0.01024 on "2024-04-26 08:00:02" and the increasing from 0.01025 to 0.01027 on "2024-04-26 09:55:02" are slight outliers, but even these are modest variations compared to the stability of the whole data.

Other Notes

Moving forward, to get a more accurate understanding of this data, longer time series analysis may be required. This would help to detect patterns and trends over different periods (days, weeks, months, etc.) and consider variations such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Although these factors have been explicitly excluded from this analysis, they are often key influencers in financial time-series data like this one.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Detailed Analysis

The comprehensive analysis of your given dataset, which represents exchange rate (NPR) versus different timestamps, is as follows:

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

Observing the given data, it can be noted that overall, the exchange rates do not experience significant fluctuations. They largely remain stable within the range of 0.01026 to 0.01031 over the duration of one day represented in the dataset. This is quite an unexpected trend as financial markets are usually subject to volatility. However, it is still important to note that even slight changes in exchange rates can have considerable financial impacts due to the large volumes involved.

2. Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns

With respect to identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns, the provided data set only spans over a day, which limits the possibility of deducing concrete information about seasonality or recurring cycles. You might need a dataset for a minimum period of a few months to a year to try to identify such patterns.

3. Outliers Identification

From the data provided, no extreme value, also known as an outlier, can be identified. The values in the dataset all lie within the above-mentioned range, remaining relatively stable and consistent. There isn’t any significant spike or drop in the exchange rates, which signifies that no specific event drastically impacted the rates during this period. This further suggests stability in the economic parameters during this timeframe. Always remember, recognizing outliers is important because they can lead to significant insights about certain events or errors in data recording.

Remember, the financial market is very dynamic, and the stability seen in this small dataset might not represent the overall behavior of the exchange rates.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

The overall trend of exchange rates in the dataset provided remain relatively stable over the period shown. The rate seemed to kick off at a value of 0.0103. Most of the time period in this dataset indicates little fluctuations in value. Later in the time series, a slight increase in exchange rate can be seen from 0.0103 up to 0.01031. Subsequently, there are very slight fluctuations - the rate dips slightly to about 0.01027 and later rises up to 0.0103 again.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

It's difficult to identify any recurring patterns or a strong seasonality in this dataset due to the very small fluctuation in exchange rates. However, it seems that NPR exchange rate keeps a generally stable range with tiny deflections, only inclining or declining by minuscule amounts.

Outliers

In this dataset, there appears to be no significant outliers since the exchange rates only differ by very small scales from the overall trend.

Not considering specific events or external factors

As per your request, this analysis does not consider the external factors like market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Furthermore, any surge or drop in the NPR exchange rate might be linked with external unforeseen economic events or policy changes, but these cannot be detected solely based on the numbers in the provided dataset.

Forecast

No future exchange rate forecasts were generated as per your request. The analysis carried out is purely based on the historical data provided and does not predict future exchange rate trends.

Please note that while this analysis provides a brief overview of the NPR exchange rates according to the dataset, a much more in-depth analysis might be necessary for making crucial financial decisions, considering factors like inflation, interest rates, public debt, economic performance, among others.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

Overview of the NPR Exchange Rate Trend

The NPR exchange rate data provided ranges from 0.01025 to 0.0103. The trend seems stable for most of the provided period. However, there are slight fluctuations in the exchange rates with noticeable increment towards the end of the period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

From the data provided, it is challenging to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of NPR exchange rates since the variations are quite small and the data is only for a day. To determine seasonality or recurring patterns, it would need more spread out data over an extended period. However, no significant seasonality or hourly recurring pattern was observed in this one day of data.

Identification of Outliers

Outliers in a dataset are values that further away from the mean. Based on the range of NPR exchange rate values, no significant outliers can be noticed. The exchange rate mostly fluctuated between 0.01025 to 0.0103, and all observed rates fall into this range. Therefore, we can conclude that the provided data set doesn't have significant outliers.

For a more in-depth analysis, data over an extended period would be desirable as it would represent trends, seasonality, and potential outliers on a larger scale.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

The overall trend indicates that the exchange rate has been relatively stable throughout the given time period. The exchange rates oscillate around 0.01028, with only minor fluctuations observed. The rates slightly increased to 0.01030 at a certain point but soon returned to 0.01028. Towards the latter part of the dataset, there is a slight decrease to 0.01026, but it then shows a slight increase again, with values returning close to the most common level of 0.01028.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Upon analyzing the data, there seems to be no clear seasonality or recurring patterns within this dataset. Instead, the dataset shows a level of variability throughout the timestamps though with the NPR remaining close to its median value. Further analysis would be required over a longer period of time for any potential recurring patterns to be identified, especially if looking for daily or weekly patterns.

Outliers

No obvious outliers were identified in this dataset, as all values remained closely clustered around the median value. The slight increase to 0.01030 does not wildly deviate from the trend and can thus be seen as a minor fluctuation rather than an outlier. The same applies to the slight decrease to 0.01026 later on. Given these observations, the dataset may be viewed as relatively consistent in its nature.

To summarize, the dataset shows a relatively stable exchange rate with minor fluctuations around a central value. There doesn't appear to be any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns in the data, and no significant outliers have been identified. Please note, this analysis does not take into account any external market factors or events that might have impacted the exchange rates.