Kwacha Forecast

Summary of Last Week

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

The exchange rate (MWK) appears to remain stable overall from 2024-04-22 to 2024-04-26. The rate oscillates around 0.00079, with only minor fluctuations noticed on 2024-04-23 and 2024-04-25, where the rate drops slightly to 0.00078. This can suggest a stable economic context within this period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Within the data, there is no apparent seasonality or recurring pattern. The exchange rate data doesn't show any clear ascending or descending trend and hovers consistently around the 0.00079 and 0.00078 marks. Thus, this dataset seemingly captures a phase of stability.

Identification of Outliers

Regarding outliers or unusual instances, the dataset provided does not seem to include any significant deviations from the trend. The exchange rate appears to maintain around the mean without any significant spikes or drops. However, minor unexpected fluctuations are visible on 2024-04-23 and 2024-04-25 where the rate slightly drops to 0.00078. Given the dataset provided and the stability of the exchange rate, these could be seen as slight anomalies.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the time series data of the exchange rate from 2024-04-22 to 2024-04-26 shows a pattern of stability with the exchange rate consistently hovering around 0.00079. No sign of a seasonal, increasing or decreasing trend was identified within this period. While minor fluctuations were noticed, no significant outliers were detected indicating a stable economic status in this timeframe.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Upon examination of the provided dataset, it is apparent that the exchanged rate (MWK) has remained stable throughout the entire period. There is no variance in exchange rates, as evidenced by the constant value of 0.00079. In this case, it would be inappropriate to term this as an increasing or decreasing trend, as there exist no fluctuations or changes in rate values throughout the observed period.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Regarding the presence of seasonality or recurring patterns, it is impossible to recognize any in the given data due to the lack of fluctuation in the exchange rates. For such patterns to occur, there must be repeated rises and declines in rates over regular intervals, which does not happen in this dataset. Therefore, there is no detectable seasonality or recurring patterns within the provided exchange rates data.

3. Outliers Detection

Similarly to the two aspects above, the absence of variance throughout these observations precludes the possibility of identifying any outliers. Outliers are usually unique or rare occurrences, which deviate significantly from the overall trend or pattern in a dataset. In this case, all values are identical with no deviations from the exchange rate of 0.00079, thus, there are zero outliers present in the data.

In conclusion, this dataset presents a remarkably uniform time series, where the exchange rate is constant at every timestamp. With this constant exchange rate trend over time, we can infer that during the period under review, the rate was extremely stable without any detected anomalies.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

Based on the provided dataset, the overall trend of MWK exchange rate indicates more or less stable rates. Except when we look at data at 13:10:03-14:30:03, when it decreases from 0.00079 to 0.00078 and back to 0.00079 at 13:30:03, and then keeps falling till 20:10:02 from 0.00079 to 0.00078. However, these are minute variations that don't establish any significant upward or downward trend given that they return to stability.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

With respect to identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the exchange rates, the given dataset does not provide enough information for this determination. The data provided spans a single day, and seasonality in exchange rates would typically be identified over longer periods of time, such as monthly or quarterly data, over multiple years.

Outliers and Unexpected Rates

As far as outliers are concerned, the dataset does not contain any extreme values that would suggest significant deviations from the average exchange rate. All values are either 0.00079 or 0.00078 which are close enough to not be considered outliers. It's probable that during the time period of the data collection, no major financial news or events occurred that significantly affected currency exchange rates.

Final Statement

It's important to note that while analyzing such data, it's always beneficial to have more diversified data spanning over a longer period of time. This would provide a better understanding of the rates and their fluctuations and might lead to more accurate insights. Remember that exchange rates are volatile and influenced by multiple local and global factors.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Upon examining the data, several key observations have been made:

Overall Trend

The exchange rate of MWK over the period has remained constant at a value of 0.00079. There do not appear to be any noticeable increasing or decreasing trends within the given time series data.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Considering the MWK rate is constant throughout the dataset, no seasonality or recurring patterns can be identified. The exchange rate has remained stable and unchanging over the entire period. Typically, factors such as market demand, political stability, and economic performance would cause fluctuations in this rate, but none of these factors appear to have an effect as per the given data.

Outliers

Given the entirety of the data shows a constant exchange rate, no outliers can be identified. An outlier in this context would be a significant departure from the 0.00079 value, which does not occur at any point in the dataset.

If the currency exchange data were not constant, a complex analysis through visual, statistical, and machine learning techniques would be required to identify trends, seasonality, and outliers in the data. However, given the unchanging nature of this dataset, such techniques are not necessary in this case.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon my analysis, the dataset from 2024-04-23 demonstrates a largely stable MWK exchange rate throughout the entire day. The MWK exchange rate remains constant at 0.00079 for the vast majority of the timestamps provided. It's noticeable that the exchange rate experienced a slight reduction at 12:10:02, decreasing from 0.00079 to 0.00078 where it remained constant till 20:00:02. At 20:05:02, the exchange rate returns back to the initial rate at 0.00079 persisting that till the end of the given period. While this analysis is based on a single day worth of data, it does show stability in the exchange rate with slight adjustments during the day.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

Regarding the seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates, the data provided does not seem to exhibit any clear seasonal trends or recurring patterns. However, the change experienced on this specific day at 12:10:02 to 0.00078 and the subsequent change back to 0.00079 at 20:05:02 could indicate a possible daily pattern. More data spanning across multiple days/weeks would be required to conclusively establish this pattern.

Identification of Outliers

Based on the data provided, there is no outlier detected. An outlier in this context would be a significant deviation from the constant value of 0.00079 or 0.00078, and such deviation is not presented within this dataset. In summary, the data reflects a high degree of stability in the MWK exchange rate throughout the documented period.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of MWK Exchange Rate Time Series Data

From the dataset provided, the exchange rates (MWK) throughout the period considered are constant at a value of 0.00079. Despite the extensive data in the given timestamp, the MWK exchange rate did not exhibit any changes.

Trend Analysis

• In terms of trends in the data, it can be inferred that the exchange rate has remained horizontal or stationary as it has been unchanged at the status quo of 0.00079 throughout the entire observed period.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

• Given that the data is stationary, we are unable to observe any seasonality or cyclic patterns in the data. The absence of variability or volatility in the exchange rate could be attributed to economic stability or a particularly stable period in the currency exchange market.

Outliers Analysis

• As the rates remain constant throughout, no outliers can be identified from this dataset. All observations are consistently at the noted exchange rate of 0.00079, hence no data points significantly deviate from the mean.

In conclusion, this analysis represents a rather unusual case of complete stability in currency exchange rates for the period observed. It may be important to further investigate the reasons behind such a static situation and check the reliability of the data source. It might also be beneficial to compare this with other metrics or datasets to identify potential reasons impacting this steadiness.