Russian Ruble Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend

The given timestamped RUB exchange rate data extends from April 22, 2024, to April 26, 2024. The RUB exchange rate during the observed period fluctuates between 0.01457 to 0.01483.

Overall, the trend for this period appears to increase slightly. Beginning at a rate of 0.01462 on April 22, it can be observed that the highest value within the given timeframe is reached on April 26 at 0.01483. However, it is important to note that despite this general increase, numerous periods of slight decline and subsequent recovery are observable through the period.

2. Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

An exact seasonality or recurring patterns in the RUB exchange rates within this data can't be clearly identified due to the short period (5 days) that the data represents. A wider timeframe may be necessary to make determinations about true seasonality. However, it can be noticed that there is an imaginable pattern within 24 hrs, such as: Rates are relatively stable during late hours, decrease in the early morning and recover throughout the day.

3. Outliers within the trend

Outliers in this sense would be instances where the exchange rate suddenly deviated significantly from its usual range. There doesn't seem to be any severe 'spike' or 'drop' within the given data because the fluctuations are relatively moderate. However, the data on April 23, where the rate slightly dipped to 0.01457, can be regarded as a temporary but significant drop.

To better view these rates, it's recommended to visually analyze the data using an appropriate graphing method, such as a line or scatter plot.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the Overall Trend

If we look at the provided dataset in overall, the exchange rate trends (RUB) appears to be fairly stable across the timestamps, with minute fluctuations. There is no clear or drastic upward or downward trend, which indicates a generally stable exchange rate over the period shown. It starts from 0.0148 at the start and ends at 0.01481, showing only a very slight increase during the period.

Identifying Recurring Patterns or Seasonality

Regarding seasonality or recurring patterns, due to the short time period of the data provided it's slightly difficult to determine any seasonal patterns. However, based on the existing data and given that the fluctuations are so minute, there seems to be no clear evidence of seasonal influences impacting the exchange rate.

Note on Outliers

When it comes to outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from the usual pattern, our dataset does not appear to present major deviations. The rates tend to fluctuate slightly around the mean 0.0148 and no extreme values are observed. It indicates that during this particular period, the exchange rate remained stable without any significant or unexpected shocks.

Implication

This stability in the exchange rates over a period suggests two things: first, it signifies the relative strength and stability of both currencies in the pair during this time; second, it suggests that the macroeconomic conditions impacting the exchange rate, such as inflation rates, interest rates, and balance of trade, remained stable during this period.

Please note that this analysis is based purely on historical data and does not factor in potential future changes in economic conditions or currency values.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overview of the Overall Trend

According to the time-series data given, the exchange rate shows small fluctuations, but generally there is a mild upward trend throughout the given period. The exchange rate starts at around 0.01469 and ends at around 0.0148 with small fluctuations in between. The exchange rates are relatively stable overall, despite the minute increases seen in the rates during the given timeline.

Analysis of Seasonality

With respect to seasonality or recurring patterns, it's difficult to firmly conclude from the provided data due to the small time interval of the given time series data. However, on the outset, there seems to be no obvious recurring patterns within regular intervals in the data set.

Identification of Outliers

In terms of outliers, the given data set does not show any indication of extreme values or substantial variances from the median that could be considered outliers. The exchange rates remain primarily within a tiny margin throughout, suggesting a relatively steady and stable foreign exchange market for this particular currency pair during the observed period.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Comprehensive Analysis of the Dataset

The provided time series data contain information about changes in the Ruble (RUB) exchange rate over time. The analysis focused on understanding the overall trend, identifying potential seasonality or recurrent patterns, and detecting any outliers. The time range covered in the dataset is on 24th April 2024, starting from 00:00:02 up to 23:55:02. Here are the key findings from the analysis:

Understanding the Overall Trend in The Exchange Rate

The data was carefully examined to identify any apparent trend in the ruble exchange rates. The values in the dataset range from 0.01457 (low) to 0.01471 (high). It's observed that there seems to be a slight upward trend in the ruble exchange rate. The value starts with 0.01457 and ends with 0.0147, indicating a mild increment over the time in this specific day.

Identifying Seasonality Or Recurring Patterns in The Changes Of Exchange Rates

By comparing the Ruble exchange rates at similar times, no clear seasonality or recurring pattern was identified in this dataset. It would require data covering a longer period and possibly at different time intervals (such as daily, weekly, or monthly) to decisively conclude on the presence of seasonality.

Detecting Outliers in The Dataset

When assessing the range of Ruble exchange rates in the dataset, no significant outliers were detected. This conclusion is based on the metrics within the current day's data. However, defining an outlier properly would require a more comprehensive benchmark, which includes data from more days or even months.

It's important to note that this limited analysis can offer insights into the behavior of the forex market on this specific day, but it may not capture the full picture of the dynamics of the exchange rates due to external factors such as geopolitical events, central bank policies, and other macro-economic indicators which are beyond the scope of this dataset.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

From the provided dataset for the date 23rd of April 2024, it is observed that the overall trend of the exchange rates (RUB) is relatively stable within the range of 0.01457 to 0.01474. There is a slight upward trend in the early hours between 00:00 and 04:00, followed by a gradual decrease towards midday, and subsequently a more or less constant pattern in the rest of the day. There is a marginal dip in the sequence at the 11:00 mark to 0.01459 but this corrects itself quickly after an hour.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

No strong seasonality or recurring patterns could be observed within the scope of the given 24-hour data. The currency seems to be reasonably stable. Although, a complete seasonal pattern couldn't be established with the given single day data as currency exchange rate trends often require a series of data over several days, weeks or months. For a more comprehensive understanding, a larger dataset spanning over a longer timeframe like months or years is required.

Outliers

There doesn't appear to be any significant outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs sharply from what would be expected based on the overall trend. However, two minor reductions in the exchange rate may be identified - one around 11:00 down to 0.01459, and a marginal decrease at 20:20 down to 0.01456. These are minor fluctuations and not severe deviations from the stable trend.

In conclusion, based on the data from the given day's time series, no significant upward or downward trends or outliers are observed for this particular day. The exchange rate depicts no significant volatility and remains stable for most part of the day.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the detailed dataset provided, it is observed that the overall exchange rate of RUB has slightly increased during this period. The rate started at 0.01462 and ended at 0.01472 which shows an upward trend which indicates that over this specific timeline, there was a gradual increase in the value of RUB.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Making a potent observation from the dataset, the exchange rate appears relatively stable with minor fluctuations and doesn't showcase a visible daily or weekly seasonality. Since we have a dataset of just a single day, it would require a longer timeline for a comprehensive seasonality analysis. For identifying weekly or monthly patterns, data spread over multiple weeks or months would be more valuable.

3. Outliers and Unexpected Exchange Rate Variations

In terms of any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly, there are a few notable times. At timestamp '2024-04-22 11:20:02', there's a sharp increase from 0.01462 to 0.01474, and it reaches a maximum of 0.01475 at '2024-04-22 11:30:03'. This could likely be due to certain market events or notable trading activity during those times. After the steep increase, the market seems to stabilize again, and by timestamp '2024-04-22 13:35:03', it returns to the 0.01472 mark and then remains around this mark for the rest of the day.

In conclusion, while there is a slight overall increase in the exchange rate of RUB during this period, the rate appears relatively stable with minor fluctuations and doesn't show clear seasonality given the dataset duration. A few outliers were noted and could indicate particular events or activities at those timestamps.