Tugrik Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Trend

Summary of Yesterday

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1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates:

Given the information provided in the data, the MNT exchange rate has been consistently at 0.0004 across all timestamps. There's no evident increase, decrease, or instability in the rates within this given period. This suggests that the exchange rate has remained stable over the entire period for which data was provided.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates:

With regards to seasonality or repeated patterns in the changes in exchange rates, the data does not reflect any such patterns. Since the exchange rate remains constant at 0.0004 for all the given timestamps, there is no variability in the data to analyze for seasonal patterns or cycles. Therefore, seasonality cannot be determined from this dataset. This highlights the stability of the MNT exchange rate during this specific period.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly:

Considering the data provided, there don't appear to be any instances where the exchange rate deviates from the consistent rate of 0.0004. In other words, there are no outliers in this dataset, as the MNT exchange rate never differs from the regular pattern. This scenario indicates that the foreign exchange market for MNT was highly predictable and stable within the given timeframe.

It's important to remember that although these observations were made based on the data provided, external factors such as global economic fluctuations, geopolitical events, government policies, and so on, could potentially impact exchange rates in real-world settings.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Based on the dataset provided, the analysis would be as follows:

1. Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The dataset shows that the exchange rates have remained stable over the observed period. Specifically, the exchange rate has stood at 0.0004 consistently from the start to the end of the sampled period. This suggests that during this time, the currency's value didn't fluctuate significantly against the other currency, hence indicating a stable exchange rate.

2. Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, this dataset does not portray any obvious patterns. The consistent exchange rate of 0.0004 across all timestamps (all times of the day and all days of the week) shows a lack of any discernible cyclicality or recurring pattern. However, the analysis might change with a more varied dataset of fluctuating exchange rates.

3. Outliers

Although unusual spikes or drops (outliers) in exchange rates can often shed light on significant economic events or market conditions, this dataset doesn't contain such inconsistencies. The exchange rate remains constant at 0.0004 throughout, and there are no instances where the rate drastically differs from this.

To give a more detailed analysis, a more varied and larger dataset would be preferred, which includes fluctuating values over the period of analysis. Also, though not considered in this analysis, external factors like market conditions, global events, and financial news have a significant role in influencing exchange rates and could add more depth to this analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

In analysing the dataset provided, the following observations were made:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon visualization of the time-series data, it is observed that the exchange rate is relatively stable throughout the entire timeframe. The data points are at a constant value of 0.0004, which suggests that there is no significant change or trend in the MNT exchange rate on the date specified (2024-04-25).

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

Given that the data spans only a single day and the exchange rate remains constant throughout, it's not possible to identify any popular seasonality trends or recurring patterns within this dataset. A longer time period, typically at least a few years, would be required to confirm the presence of any seasonal effects or repetitive patterns accurately.

Noting any outliers or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly

Since all the exchange rates provided in the dataset are constant and don't differ over the given timestamps, no outliers can be observed. An outlier, in this case, would be a significant deviation from the constant rate of 0.0004, which doesn't occur in this dataset.

Please note that this analysis is purely based on the dataset provided and does not consider outside influences such as market trends, political events, or economic indicators. For an in-depth and accurate analysis, other external factors and a larger dataset should be taken into consideration.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

1. Understanding of The Overall Trend

From the data provided, the MNT exchange rate seems to remain steady at 0.0004 throughout the period. There is no evident upward or downward trend in this dataset as the exchange rate maintains its value consistently at each recorded timestamp throughout the day.

2. Identification of Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Upon examining this dataset, no significant seasonality or recurring patterns appear evident since the exchange rate maintains the same value for each timestamp. There is no indication of any cyclic patterns relating to the time of day, week, or month.

3. Noting of Outliers

As the exchange rate is uniform throughout, there are no outliers present in this dataset, or instances where the exchange rate significantly deviates from the constant value of 0.0004.

Please note that this analysis is purely based on the provided data and does not consider any external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Also as instructed, no forecast has been generated for future rates.

Conclusions

• All recordings of the MNT exchange rate remain constant throughout the dataset, maintaining a steady value.
• No evidence of any seasonal or recurring patterns in the exchange rate.
• No instances of unexpected differences in the value, i.e., no outliers are observed.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend in Exchange Rates

According to the data provided, the exchange rate (MNT) remains constant over the period shown. It is at a constant rate of 0.0004 for each timestamp. While this might suggest stability in the market, it's unusual for a rate to remain so steady over such an extended period. It's important to verify the accuracy of the data or identify if this is a placeholder or average value.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

Due to the constant rate throughout the given period, it is impossible to identify any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates. Generally, fluctuations would be expected due to varying supply and demand conditions or shifts in economic policy. However, such fluctuations are not observable in this dataset.

Identification of Outliers

In view of the constant exchange rate throughout the period, there are no outliers in the dataset. An outlier would present as a significant deviation from the logged exchange rate of 0.0004, but no such deviations are present in the data.

External Factors

The analysis does not consider the impact of external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports. Since the requested analysis scope does not involve these external implications, the interpretation strictly adheres to the presented time-bound data, which, in this case, does not present any variability.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Analysis of Time-series Data: Trending, Seasonality, and Outliers

Firstly, the MNT exchange rate appears to be constant throughout the entire dataset. The value for MNT remains at 0.0004 for all timestamps given, indicating a trend of stability in the exchange rate over the period shown. Generally, exchange rates fluctuate due to aspects such as inflation rates, interest rates, country’s debt levels, terms of trade, political stability and economic performance among others. However, in this dataset, no change is observed in the exchange rate. This could be due to the way the data is sampled, or extraordinary stability in the external factors which typically influence an exchange rate.

Seasonality in the dataset

As there are no fluctuations in the value of MNT exchange rate data provided, no seasonality or recurring patterns are apparent. Usually, seasonality would be manifested as specific patterns occurring at regular intervals over time in the dataset. This might not be the case in this dataset due to the absence of fluctuations and hence the possible absence of certain external influences.

Outliers in the dataset

Similarly, due to the constant exchange rate in the dataset, there are no exceptions or instances that deviate from the trend indicating there are no outliers in this dataset. Outliers would typically appear as extreme values that are noticeable against the trend of the data, but as the data is identical for all timestamps, no such cases exist in this situation.

In conclusion, the dataset shows a stable MNT exchange rate with no observable seasonality or outliers. However, it is rare for financial time-series data to show no change over time, so it might be useful to review the data collection and sampling techniques used to gather this dataset.