Serbian Dinar Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

• Mean:
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Trend

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Upon observing the given data, we can infer that there's an overall minimal fluctuation in the exchange rates. The value mostly ranges between 0.01245 and 0.01253, showing a slight upward trend from the beginning (0.0125) to the end (0.01248) of the observed period, but without any significant rise or fall. The changes seem to be cyclic around this slight upward trend line, suggesting highly volatile but ultimately near-stable values over this short term period. A more detailed investigation over a long period might reveal further aspects of this overall trend.

Identifying seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes

In the given dataset, no clear seasonality or consistently recurring patterns are observable. The exchange rates show minor variability but lack a solid rhythmic or cyclical pattern that allows us to outline any form of seasonality. However, it should be noted that with a larger dataset, spread over a longer timeline with more data points, recurring patterns might emerge. Seasonality can typically be better observed over extended periods. Additionally, exchange rates are commonly subject to many influences that can mask seasonality in the short term.

Noting significant outliers

The dataset does not indicate any significant outliers during the defined period. An "outlier" in this context means an exchange rate that deviates significantly from the rates close to it in time. Considering the data, all rates are tightly clustered within a small range, and no single data point shows a significant deviation from its surroundings. This observation suggests a lack of sudden and extreme changes in the exchange rate within this time frame.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The data shows a generally stable rate over the period observed, with a mastering rate of 0.0125 for a large part of the observation period. There are slight fluctuations around this value, which appear to take the value slightly down to 0.01249 and 0.01248 towards the end of the data set, indicating a marginal downtrend.

2. Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

A detailed examination of the data with time slice did not reveal any obvious seasonality or recurring patterns. The rate fluctuates slightly around the 0.0125 value, but this is quite minimal and does not display a clear pattern. There was also no obvious cyclic pattern or seasonal effect visible in the data. Since the data provided only spans a short time period, it is possible that there is longer-term seasonality or recurring patterns that are not obvious from this dataset.

3. Noting any outliers, or instances where the exchange rate differs significantly from what would be expected based on the trend or seasonality

This dataset is quite clean without any clear outliers. The rate is very steady despite small fluctuations, and all recorded rates fall into an expected range given the overall trend observed. Therefore, no distinct outliers that differ significantly from the expected trend are present in the data.

Keep in your mind to make further accurate conclusions and insights, a larger data sample or external influences such as political or economic changes should be considered.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

After analyzing the dataset that provided timestamps and corresponding RSD exchange rates, here are my findings:

1. Overall Trend of Exchange Rates

The RSD exchange rate, over the period, seems to show a slight fluctuation between 0.0125 to 0.01254. It seems that a slight increase is going on as it first starts at around 0.01251 and by the end it is hovering around 0.01253. The data does not indicate a significant increase or decrease in the exchange rate over time and appears relatively stable.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

When looking at the data, it appears that the exchange rate does not show a clear-cut pattern or seasonality as the price consistently hovers around the same value over time. The exchange rate seems to be more random and less influenced by any distinct cyclical trends based on the timestamps.

3. Outliers in the Data

In this dataset, there does not appear to be clear outliers. Most of the rates vary within a very tight range of 0.0125 to 0.01254. There are no significant jumps or drops observed in the given period. This suggests consistency in the rates. However, without the context of market events or related financial news, it's hard to gauge dramatic changes or anomalies only from the given data.

Remember, this analysis is conducted based on the provided data and does not take into account other external factors related to economic indicators, fiscal policy, geo-political risks, or other factors that can significantly influence exchange rates. For a more comprehensive picture of RSD exchange rate behavior, a broader range of data along with the context would need to be considered.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

In this dataset, we collected the exchange rates (RSD) at different timestamps, spanning from 00:00:02 to 23:55:02 in 24th April 2024. Here is the comprehensive analysis:

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

The value of the exchange rate varied between 0.01247 and 0.01252 over the given period. It's important to note that these rates fluctuated within a very tight range, suggesting that exchange rate is quite stable for the given day. There was a minor increase from 0.01248 at the start of the day to 0.01251 by the end of the day, indicating a mild uptrend.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the change of exchange rates

The exchange rate data seem to have no specific recurring pattern within the day - it fluctuates slightly but generally maintains stability. However, we notice some degree of repetitive patterns such as periods where the exchange rate remains consistent, sometimes for an hour or so, followed by a minor fluctuation. These patterns repeat multiple times throughout the given timespan.

Outliers and unexpected fluctuations

The exchange rate data stays within a narrow band—around 0.01248 and 0.01252. Any significant deviation outside of this range could be considered as an outlier. From the given data, there are no drastic changes or outliers observed.

Overall, the analysis of the time series data of this specific date reveals a largely steady exchange rate, with minor fluctuations and no unexpected jumps or falls. The identified patterns and trends give an insight into the stability of the economy on this particular day.

Please note that for a more accurate understanding of the exchange rate's behaviour, a longer period may be required. This would help ascertain any long-term trends, cyclical patterns, and the potential impact of external factors not considered in this specific analysis.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

Analysis of the Exchange Rate Trend

The exchange rate data provided is in a time series format consisting of values taken at evenly spaced intervals. Scanning through the datasets, it is noticeable that the exchange rate maintained a fairly stable movement throughout the period under review. The rate started at 0.01246 and drifted slightly downwards and upwards in minor fractions, signifying that the exchange rate during the period represented, has a somewhat horizontal or stagnant overall trend.

Seasonality and Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the data provided does not show any distinctive cyclical pattern. The exchange rate remains fairly consistent throughout the observed period, with very minimal variation. This consistency suggests that there may not be any recurring patterns in the change of exchange rates based on the time of day or specific dates. Again, considering the stability and uniformity of the observed rates, no noteworthy seasonality can be identified.

Outliers within the Exchange Rates

Given the stability and consistency of the exchange rate throughout the dataset, any significant deviations would be considered as outliers. Such outliers can be spikes or troughs in the exchange rate that break away from the pattern of minor fluctuation displayed in the data set. In this particular dataset, there are no significant outliers present. All exchange rates observed have maintained a steady state, fluctuating between 0.01244 and 0.01249, which is a very narrow band. This consistency in the given time period signifies a pretty steady and stable exchange rate environment.

Additional Insights

Despite the data provided does not visibly show trends, patterns, or outliers, a more advanced statistical analysis could provide a deeper insight into the data. Techniques such as performing decomposition of the time series into trend, seasonality, and residuals or conducting a spectral analysis to identify any hidden cycles might potentially reveal more details. However, without incorporating external factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, release of key financial news and reports, the analysis will be limited.

Summary of Last Month

• Opening:
• Closing:
• Difference of Opening & Closing:
• Daily High:
• Daily Low:
• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

• Mean:
• Standard Deviation:

Trend

1. Understanding the Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The dataset reflects exchange rate movements from 0.01249 to 0.01246 over the span of a day. There is observable a very slight downward trend within the provided data. The exchange rate began at 0.01249 and gradually decrease to 0.01246. It is, however, important to note that while the overall trend shows a decrease, the fluctuations are very minor, and the exchange rate largely exhibits a strong level of stability.

2. Identifying Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, the provided dataset does not show any significant changes that indicate a regular, repeating pattern within the 24-hour period. While there are minor fluctuations throughout, they appear to be random rather than forming a discernible pattern. This suggests that there may not be significant seasonal or hourly impacts on this exchange rate for this specific day.

3. Noting any Outliers

Across the observed data, no significant outliers are apparent in the dataset. The exchange rate ranged from a high of 0.01250 and a low of 0.01245, which is a relatively minimal spread, suggesting that no radical fluctuations or unusual activities occurred in the market at those times. This further demonstrates the stability of the exchange rate within this specific day.

Please, note that while this analysis provides insights into the behavior of the exchange rate within the given day, these findings might not hold true for other periods, given the myriad of factors that can affect currency exchange rates.