Lari Forecast

Summary of Last Week

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend of the Exchange Rates

The overall trend of the GEL exchange rate is relatively stable, with minor fluctuations. The data provided indicates minor fluctuations within a narrow range (from approx 0.509 to 0.515) over the period covered, without any significant upward or downward trends. The most significant fluctuation occurred between 2024-04-22 14:00:03 and 2024-04-22 18:00:03, where the exchange rate dropped from 0.51193 to 0.51221.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

As for seasonality or recurring patterns, it might be tricky to identify them in this dataset as the data only spans for a few days. More data would be required to confidently determine any such patterns. However, there are tiny patterns where the exchange rate decreases slightly in the morning hours and again increases in the evening hours. This pattern is not very pronounced and might not be a recurring pattern, as it is not consistent every day.

Outliers

With regard to outliers or anomalies, none are evident in the data provided. The fluctuations in the exchange rate are relatively minor and there are no instances where the exchange rate changes are considered as significantly deviating from the overall trend or range within which the exchange rate typically fluctuates. However, to determine any possible outliers with greater accuracy, a statistical analysis method such as the Z-score or the IQR method can be employed, especially when dealing with larger datasets.

Summary of Yesterday

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• Difference of Daily High & Low:

Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Without conducting an in-depth mathematical analysis, it is still possible to draw certain conclusions from the data provided. On an overall note, the Gel exchange rate shows a slightly upward trend throughout the provided data, starting from 0.50946 and ending at 0.50983. This indicates that the exchange rate has generally increased over the period shown. However, the rise is relatively small and signifies subtle appreciation.

Recurring Patterns and Seasonality

Concerning recurring patterns or seasonality, a proper econometric analysis is required; however, no clear repetitive trend or pattern is visible from the data at first glance. The exchange rate shows fluctuations that could be stemming from countless factors, including the policies of the monetary authorities and foreign exchange market dynamics. Further econometric techniques, like Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) or Exponential Smoothing State Space Model (ETS), can be effective in identifying underlying seasonality or recurring patterns.

Outliers Identification

Identifying outliers in this type of data would require a comprehensive statistical analysis, which is beyond the scope of this analytical insight. From an initial examination, there doesn't seem to be any significant deviation in the exchange rates, and they appear to follow a relatively smooth pattern with gradual fluctuations. However, for precise outlier detection, statistical techniques like the Z-score method or the Tukey Fences method can be implemented.

Please note: This analysis is solely based on the data provided and does not consider other influences like economic news, political events, Central Bank interventions, or release of key financial indicators which can significantly impact the exchange rate.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Understanding the overall trend of the exchange rates

Based on the provided dataset and timestamps, your exchange rates slightly fluctuate over time. The numerical values show small to negligible decreases or increases every time interval and there is no major significant increase or decrease noticed. The exchange rate started from 0.5099 at initial time and went to 0.5094 by the end, this gives somewhat a negative slope.

Identifying any seasonality or recurring patterns in the changes of exchange rates

It's a little challenging to spot any recurring patterns or seasonality just from this set of numbers without a chart or without aggregating and analysing the data at a larger time scale like per hour or per day. However, as per the provided data we can observe that there are minor fluctuations observed in the exchange rate and it oscillates up and down within a definite small range. This can potentially be a hint of some seasonality but it's not clear-cut without conducting a more thorough time series analysis.

Outliers in the Dataset

Overall, the dataset seems consistent and the value fluctuations are within a small range. Hence, it's hard to pinpoint any specific outliers based on the current dataset. The variations in the data seem to be sticking to a similar scale and perturbations, thus indicating lesser chances of unusual outliers.

Additional Factors

External factors such as market opening/closing hours, weekends/holidays, or the release of key financial news and reports can considerably impact exchange rates, inducing irregular fluctuations or extreme outliers in the data. However, in absence of these external factors or specific instructions about considering them, the analysis was done only on the basis of the numbers provided in the dataset.

Please do note, for a more precise and detailed analysis, visualization of the trend and deploying some statistical analysis techniques could be necessary and beneficial.

Summary of Yesterday

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend

From a cursory analysis, the exchange rate of GEL appears to show a slight upward trend over time. Despite the trend's slightness, the rate seems to be slightly increasing since the starting rate of 0.51085 and the ending rate of 0.50993 show a minimal decline.

Seasonality/Recurring Patterns

Due to the limited amount of data provided, identifying a definitive seasonality or recurring patterns can be challenging. Nevertheless, there are some fluctuations in the exchange rates that might hint at potential patterns - although these would need to be confirmed with more data. The exchange rate seems to demonstrate a short-term repetitive rise and fall pattern throughout the day, though further analysis would be required to establish the veracity and consistency of this pattern.

Outliers

There do not seem to be many dramatic outliers in this dataset - the exchange rates tend to stay within a relatively small range. However, there are a few instances where the exchange rate seems to fluctuate more markedly. For instance, around the timestamp '2024-04-24 06:50:02', there's a slight spike in the exchange rate at 0.51173, which might be considered outlier. Further statistical analysis would be required to identify if this value is a verified outlier.

Please note that this analysis is purely descriptive and based on the data provided. For a more detailed analysis, a larger dataset and integration of external factors like market conditions, financial news, and so on, may be helpful.

Summary of Yesterday

• Opening:
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• Difference of Opening & Closing:
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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Financial Analysis Report

Overall Trend Analysis

Based on the data provided on the Georgian Lari (GEL) exchange rates for the date of 23rd April 2024, it can be noted that the exchange rates are showing a gradual decreasing trend throughout the day.The GEL opened at 0.51209 at the beginning of the day and closed at 0.51084, showing a marginal depreciation in value across the day.

Seasonality or Recurring Patterns

In terms of seasonality or recurring patterns, there is a slight fluctuation in exchange rates observed. The rates tend to show a certain rise after a certain number of time intervals and show a drop after another number of time intervals. The pattern does not seem to be seasonally dependent or time dependent as the movements are quite random. However, this would require a more in-depth temporal analysis to ascertain.

Outliers and Significant Differences

Outliers in the data, if any, are not easily discernible from the time series data as the movements are quite small. However, there are instances where the exchange rate differed slightly more than usual in a 5-minute time frame. These instances are not large enough to cause a significant impact on the overall trend analysis and may be due to regular market volatility. A more in-depth statistical analysis would be required to identify significant outliers in the data.

Summary of Last Month

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Statistical Measures

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Trend

Overall Trend Analysis

Upon analyzing the provided dataset, it appears that the GEL exchange rate has a generally stable trend throughout the day with minor fluctuations. The exchange rate sees marginal decreases and increases over the period but does not display a consistent, directional trend. This suggests a highly stable market for GEL in this given time period. It starts around a rate of 0.515 and fluctuates within relatively tight bounds throughout the day, with an occasional dip as low as 0.511 and rise as high as 0.5159. There does not appear to be a clear pattern of increasing or decreasing values over the day.

Seasonality and Patterns

Upon observing the dataset, there are no significant seasonal trends or recurring patterns within the day. The fluctuations within the exchange rate seem to be mostly random and do not follow a particular pattern that could be linked to specific hours of the day. The absence of noticeable patterns may hint at a market that responds more readily to immediate factors rather than cyclical or recurring influences.

Identification of Outliers

The dataset appears to have very few, if any, outliers. The majority of the rates are closely packed around an average value, with only a few instances of slight divergence. One possible outlier occurs around 13:50 where the rate drops to 0.51196, which is the lowest rate seen throughout the day. However, given the generally tight fluctuation observed, this dip may not be truly considered a significant outlier.

Overall, the dataset suggests a relatively stable exchange rate for the GEL with minor fluctuations throughout the day, with no significant trend or recurring patterns within the day.